Poll test for Brown in Scottish heartland

By Avril Ormsby

GLASGOW (Reuters) - Puffing on a cigarette outside a Glasgow pub in the winter chill, Nick Perry says his family has always voted Labour and he plans to stick to that tradition -- despite recession and an expenses scandal.

"We are a working class family: my father voted Labour, my mother voted Labour, my whole family has voted Labour," the 48-year-old says.

Labour loyalists like Perry are expected to deliver a comfortable win for Prime Minister Gordon Brown's centre-left party in a by-election on Thursday.

The vote in the Glasgow North East parliamentary constituency, one of Britain's most deprived areas, is likely to be the last before a general election next year.

Nationwide, the Conservatives are on track to defeat Labour and return to power for the first time since 1997 as they are well ahead in opinion polls across Britain.

But the centre-right party is an also-ran in Scotland and the pro-independence Scottish National Party (SNP) poses the main threat to Labour and Brown in Glasgow North East.

Analysts say that anything other than a routine win for Labour could prompt fresh speculation about Brown's leadership after a rebellion petered out earlier this year.

"If Labour were to lose there would be another set of mutterings and media speculation about Gordon Brown's future," said John Curtice, professor in politics at Glasgow's University of Strathclyde.