U.S. withdrawal from Iraq on schedule -- for now

By Ross Colvin and Michael Christie

WASHINGTON/BAGHDAD (Reuters) - The Iraqi parliament's approval of an election law on Sunday cleared a major potential obstacle to the U.S. military meeting its timetable for withdrawing all combat troops by September 2010.

But no one in Baghdad and Washington is celebrating just yet. Their sense of relief is tempered by the knowledge that in Iraq nothing is ever as clear cut as it seems.

The timeline for the U.S. pullout could still be affected by any delay in picking Iraq's next government following the election, scheduled to take place on January 21.

After Iraq's last national elections in December 2005, Iraqi leaders took months to choose a new government. While political parties jockeyed for position, Sunni Islamist al Qaeda militants took advantage of a power vacuum to launch attacks that ignited a wave of sectarian bloodletting.

With that history in mind, the U.S. commander in Iraq, General Ray Odierno, has 60 days after the election to make a recommendation on how the troop pullout should proceed.

A number of alliances are contesting the election, and none are expected to win the majority needed to select a prime minister. That means it could take months to form a new government, political analysts say.

"Iraq is undertaking a very difficult and complex political labor," said Hussain al-Falluji, an independent Sunni lawmaker. "A delay in the announcement of a new Iraqi government under these complex conditions is quite feasible."

In testimony to a U.S. congressional committee in September, Odierno said the U.S. military had built flexibility into its withdrawal plans and was prepared for a months-long wait. "We expect it will take from January to June or so, maybe July, to seat the new government," he said.