Black Friday sales strong, but will it last?

By Martinne Geller and Phil Wahba

NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. consumers turned out in strong numbers to hunt for holiday bargains on Black Friday, though many said they were spending selectively and industry executives questioned whether the momentum would last.

The Friday after U.S. Thanksgiving is often the busiest shopping day of the holiday season, which accounts for nearly one-fifth of the retail industry's annual sales.

This year retailers and investors are paying close attention to signs of a consumer comeback that could propel the economy, after the 2008 holiday season saw the worst sales performance in nearly four decades.

Retail analysts who hopped from mall to mall across the country on Friday saw larger crowds and said customers were toting more shopping bags than last year. Hot-ticket items included Zhu Zhu Pets toy hamsters, netbook computers and flat screen televisions.

But insiders note that an early surge does not guarantee a strong selling season in the weeks leading to Christmas on December 25. Industry forecasts range from a rise of 2 percent to a decline of 3 percent for sales during the entire period.

"There's lots of people in this store -- there are lots of shopping bags," Macy's Inc (M.N) Chief Executive Terry Lundgren told Reuters, referring to the flagship store in Manhattan's Herald Square. "I don't think necessarily that customers are going to spend more than they spent last year.

Best Buy CEO Brian Dunn also said he expected a tough holiday season.

The Standard & Poor's Retail Index .RLX closed down 1.3 percent on Friday, slightly better than a 1.7 percent decline for the wider S&P 500 .SPX that was fuelled by concerns over a possible debt default in Dubai.