IEA sees supply crunch threat, higher oil price

By Alex Lawler

LONDON, Nov 7 (Reuters) - Consumers face higher oil prices and the risk of a supply crunch as output may fail to match demand, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday in its annual World Energy Outlook.

The adviser to 26 industrialised countries also lifted an estimate of how much the world needs to invest in oilfields by 2030 to $5.4 trillion and warned that a shortfall would send prices even higher.

Oil is within sight of $100 a barrel, leaving consumer governments worried about their economies. It could hit a nominal $159 in 2030 under higher than expected demand growth, said IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol.

"Although new oil-production capacity additions from greenfield projects are expected to increase over the next five years, it is very uncertain whether they will be sufficient," the IEA study said.

"A supply-side crunch in the period to 2015, involving an abrupt escalation in oil prices, cannot be ruled out."

A barrel of crude may cost a nominal $65 a barrel in 2010 or $59.03 in real terms, up from a respective $57.79 and $51.50 expected last year, the IEA said.

The nominal price may hit $107.59 in 2030, up from $97.30 expected last year.