TEXT-Fitch affirms Mosaic Co ratings

Mon Oct 26, 2009 4:46pm GMT
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 (The following statement was released by the rating agency)
 Oct 26 - Fitch Ratings has determined that the special dividend of $1.30
per share announced today by The Mosaic Company (MOS.N: Quote, Profile, Research) (Mosaic) will not
impact the company's debt ratings.
 The special dividend payable in December 2009 will total approximately $580
million and will be paid out of cash reserves which were a little over $2.6
billion at the close of the company's first fiscal quarter (which ended this
past August)
 Fitch affirms the ratings of Mosaic and Mosaic Global Holdings as follows:
 The Mosaic Company
 --Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at 'BBB';
 --Senior unsecured notes at 'BBB';
 --Unsecured revolver at 'BBB'.
 Mosaic Global Holdings
 --IDR at 'BBB';
 --Senior unsecured notes and debentures at 'BBB'.
 Fitch has also assigned a 'BBB' rating to Mosaic's $500 million unsecured
revolver which replaced a similar $450 million secured facility in July 2009.
 The Rating Outlook is Stable.
 Mosaic's free cash flow (FCF) for the current fiscal year (ending May 2010)
could be negative.
 In addition to the special dividend, the company is expanding its
production capacity at its three principal potash mines (Esterhazy, Colonsay
and Belle Plaine) which will bring this year's capital budget to $1.0-$1.2
billion. Current cash flow has declined due to a postponed demand for
fertilizers.
 High prices have put off product demand (for nitrogen, phosphate and
potash) and retailers, who have been de-stocking their inventories at
successively lower prices, have been reluctant to restock the supply chain,
preferring to await firm orders for field applications. Mosaic's shipments of
phosphates and potash have declined 1% and 58%, respectively, in year-over-year
comparisons of the first quarter while prices realizations have fallen 73% and
22%, respectively.
 FCF declined from $352 million in the first quarter of 2008 to -$86 million
in the first quarter of 2009. Fertilizer demand should revive and ultimately
return to pre-recession levels during the planting season next spring or the
following year. Grain demand is healthy, and grain prices support profitable
farm economics.
 Corn is supported by ethanol blending requirements which alone absorb
approximately 30% of U.S. production. Mosaic's cash flow should benefit from
the firm's leading market positions in phosphates and potash, currently
fortified by a weak U.S. dollar.
 The timing of this recovery and Mosaic's planned mine development
expenditures will exert opposing pressures on funding. In reserve Mosaic will
have in excess of $2 billion in cash (pro forma) on its balance sheet after the
special dividend, $1.4 billion in debt, plus the added liquidity of a $500
million undrawn revolver (excluding outstanding letters of credit).
 Mosaic has established a substantial internal liquidity threshold in
contemplation of agricultural cycles and can slow back its mine development
plans if need be; however, the company would be reluctant to do so unless
absolutely necessary.


 
 

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