TEXT-S&P cuts Ford's rating to 'CC'
(The following statement was released by the rating agency)
March 4 - Standard & Poor's Ratings Services today said it has lowered its
corporate credit rating on Ford Motor Co. (F.N) to 'CC' from 'CCC+'. We also
lowered the issue-level ratings on the company's senior secured term loan,
senior unsecured debt, and subordinated debt, while leaving the issue-level
rating on Ford's senior secured revolving credit facility unchanged. In
addition, the counterparty credit ratings and issue-level ratings on Ford Motor
Credit Co. (Ford Credit) and FCE Bank PLC remain unchanged. The outlooks on
Ford and Ford Credit are negative.
The downgrades on Ford follow the company's announcement today of a debt restructuring, which we consider to be a distressed exchange and, as such, tantamount to a default under our criteria. Under the plan, Ford Credit will make a $1.3 billion cash tender offer for Ford's senior unsecured debt and a $500 million cash tender offer for Ford's senior secured term loan. Ford will offer a combination of equity and cash to holders of the company's 4.25% senior convertible notes due 2036. Ford indicated that all debt acquired by Ford Credit through the tender offers will be retired. In addition, Ford said it intends to defer future interest payments on the 6.5% convertible trust preferred securities issued by Ford Motor Co. Capital Trust II.
Our downgrades today do not reflect an increase in Ford's risk of bankruptcy in our view--although, as we have noted previously, we believe the risk will remain high for all three Michigan-based automakers for 2009 and 2010 because of the dismal state of industry demand and other industry problems, such as the potential for supplier failures. (In fact, Ford's debt restructuring, if successful, would reduce debt and cash interest expense and, in our view, would lead to a modest decrease in the risk of a near-term default.) Our downgrades are based on the financial pressure that Ford is under to reduce its debt by retiring debt for less than originally contracted. Similarly, investors' potential willingness to accept a substantial discount to contractual terms suggests to us that they have significant doubts about receiving full payment on obligations.
We expect the differential between the issuer credit ratings on Ford and Ford Credit to be temporary because we still consider Ford Credit's default risk to be indistinguishable from that of its parent, in accordance with our criteria on captive finance subsidiaries. Ford Credit is using up to $1.8 billion of its cash to facilitate the debt restructuring, which we believe underscores our view of the two entities as a single enterprise with close financial and business ties.
Under terms of the tender offers, the total cash consideration paid to most unsecured debtholders would be about 30% of par for those who tender their notes by March 19, 2009, or 27% for those who tender after that date. Senior secured term loan holders would receive between 38% and 47% of par, depending on the outcome of a Dutch auction tender offer. Holders of convertible notes would receive $80 in cash plus nearly 109 shares of Ford common stock for every $1,000 of principal. Ford plans to complete the exchange offers by April 3, 2009.
The outlook is negative. If the offers are completed as planned, we would lower the corporate credit rating to 'SD' (selective default) and lower the exchanged issue ratings to 'D'. We would then, shortly thereafter, assign a new corporate credit rating on Ford based on our assessment of the company's new capital structure and liquidity profile, while taking into account its business prospects and other relevant rating considerations, including the effect of any assistance the U.S. government provides. Ford is not seeking government loans but has requested a standby credit line of up to $9 billion to protect its liquidity against further market deterioration.
Our preliminary expectation is that, even with the substantial debt reduction, the corporate credit rating would likely not rise above the 'CCC' category immediately following the consummation of a debt exchange. We recognize that the postexchange capital structure could result in substantially lower debt and interest costs. However, we believe many fundamental business risks would remain unchanged for at least the rest of 2009 and perhaps longer, most notably the company's exposure to deteriorating vehicle demand globally, but also the substantial execution risk of the company's ongoing restructuring and repositioning.
We could lower the ratings on Ford Credit and FCE Bank following completion of the exchange offers if our assessment of Ford leads us to assign a corporate credit rating of 'CCC' or lower. As noted above, given our view of Ford Credit as a captive finance subsidiary, we would expect to re-establish the equalization of Ford Credit's counterparty credit rating with Ford's corporate credit rating. We currently also expect to maintain the one-notch rating enhancement on FCE Bank from its parent, Ford Credit, which reflects FCE's solid capitalization, regulated status, and ability to access independent asset-backed funding. RELATED RESEARCH This rating action is based in part on the following criteria articles on RatingsDirect: "General Criteria: Rating Implications Of Exchange Offers And Similar Restructurings," published Jan. 28, 2009, and "Captive Finance Operations," published April 17, 2007.
Complete ratings information is available to RatingsDirect subscribers at www.ratingsdirect.com. All ratings affected by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at www.standardandpoors.com; select your preferred country or region, then Ratings in the left navigation bar, followed by Find a Rating. Primary Credit Analysts: Robert Schulz, CFA, New York (1) 212-438-7808;
robert_schulz@standardandpoors.com
Gregg Lemos Stein, New York (1) 212-438-1730;
gregg_lemos-stein@standardandpoors.com (New York Ratings Team)
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