Detroit demise would hit, not help, Asian rivals

By Chang-Ran Kim, Asia autos correspondent - Analysis

TOKYO (Reuters) - Asia's top automakers would not welcome the collapse of one or even all of their three big Detroit rivals, though the likes of Toyota Motor Corp, Honda Motor Co Ltd and Hyundai Motor Co would expect to gain sales in the long term.

Industry executives and analysts say the immediate carnage from a bankruptcy of General Motors Corp, Ford Motor Co or Chrysler LLC would spread throughout an industry that is bleeding cash in a global slowdown.

"If all the Big Three were to fail, the consequences of that are beyond imagination. I think it would upset the very foundation of the U.S. economy," Suzuki Motor Corp CEO Osamu Suzuki warned last week.

GM, Ford and Chrysler have urged Congress this week to authorize $34 billion in loans and credit lines, saying they will restructure, and cut models, jobs and executive pay to remain viable.

Suzuki's peers agree, maybe reluctantly, that a multi-billion dollar U.S. bailout is inevitable.

"From a business standpoint it would be unfair," Honda Executive Vice President Koichi Kondo told Reuters. "But if the Big Three filed for Chapter 11, that would hurt us badly."

A bankruptcy filing would disrupt every aspect of the automaking industry.

Dealers selling cars for multiple brands would go under; if all the Big Three lost their U.S. operations, nearly 3 million jobs would be lost in the first year, U.S.-based Center of Automotive Research estimates, devastating already frail consumer sentiment.