* Oil demand growth seen strongest since 2010
* Need for OPEC oil in 2014 to be 1 mbpd below output now
* Says 2014 outlook "should give oil bulls cause for alarm"
(Adds video link, comparisons with EIA, OPEC reports)
By Dmitry Zhdannikov
LONDON, July 11 The North American shale oil
boom could spur the biggest rise in non-OPEC supply growth in
decades next year, helping meet strong global demand and eroding
the market share of OPEC countries, the International Energy
Agency (IEA) said on Thursday.
Shale oil and gas is already transforming the global energy
market, notably by providing cheap supplies to the U.S. economy
and lessening its dependence on imports.
Even though global oil demand growth in 2014 will rise to
its strongest level since 2010, supply will remain quite
comfortable, meaning oil prices should avoid steep spikes, the
IEA, the energy adviser to industrialised countries said in its
"The 2014 outlook... should give oil bulls some cause for
alarm. NonOPEC supply growth looks on track to hit a 20year
record next year, surpassing the 1.3 million bpd high reached in
2002," the IEA said.
While demand growth is also forecast to gain momentum,
rising to 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2014 from 0.930
million bpd in 2013, it will still fall short of forecast
nonOPEC supply growth.
As a result, the need for OPEC oil will decline. The IEA
said the "call" on OPEC crude is set to ease in 2014 to 29.4
million bpd from 29.6 million bpd this year and versus current
OPEC production of 30.61 million bpd.
The picture painted by the IEA represents a dramatic change
in patterns seen in recent decades when the world was expected
to be increasingly reliant on OPEC's oil with supplies from
other producers declining or remaining stagnant.
OPEC itself said on Wednesday that 2014 incremental demand
will be covered by non-OPEC supplies.
Rising shale output will make it harder for the 12-member
group to keep its own output at high rates without risking a
drop in prices below $100 a barrel, its preferred level.
In 2014, the IEA expects North American supply to grow by
close to 1 million bpd and other countries including Brazil and
Kazakhstan to also produce more.
Major presalt projects in Brazil, the Kashagan field in
Kazakhstan, West Chirag in Azerbaijan, and new fields in the
North Sea are expected to offset declining production elsewhere.
"Production could prove even higher than forecast in Russia,
the United States, Canada, and Brazil, especially if prices
remain at or above current levels," the IEA said.
For Reuters TV interview with the IEA's Antoine Halff
On the demand side, China is forecast to remain the main
engine of demand growth in 2014 adding 385,000 bpd, followed by
the rest of nonOECD Asia adding 325,000 bpd and the Middle
East, where demand should rise by 225,000 bpd.
"While demand in the OECD region is expected to contract, it
will do so at a much slower pace than has been the case in the
last few years since the 2008 financial crisis, edging down by
0.4 percent in 2014 compared to the 0.8 percent drop of 2013."
Top oil consumer the United States will see a modest 0.1
percent drop in demand to 18.6 million bpd in 2014, as
efficiency gains continue to dampen the U.S. demand outlook.
In China, the world's No.2 oil user, the IEA sees growth of
3.9 percent, taking 2014 consumption to around 10.3 million bpd.
U.S. government forecasts 2014 global demand growth similar
to the IEA.
(Editing by Jason Neely and James Jukwey)