Iran's missile warning - more bark than bite?

By Fredrik Dahl - Analysis

TEHRAN (Reuters) - Iran showed footage of missiles on Wednesday it warns could reach Israel and U.S. bases in the Middle East, but military analysts said the damage they could wreak was limited and not enough to deter any would-be attacker.

Iran's real ability to hit back against any U.S. or Israeli strike may lie in less conventional tactics than a missile salvo, the analysts say.

The Islamic Republic's Revolutionary Guards test-fired nine long- and medium-range missiles and said they were ready to retaliate if the country's foes launched military strikes over its disputed nuclear activities, state media reported.

The televised display of its firepower appeared designed to demonstrate for the world and ordinary Iranians that it could and would respond to any attack.

"This is the Iranians saying: 'We can match you if it comes to that'," said Andrew Brookes of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) think-tank in London.

But, he added, the "possession of some rockets" was not going to stop Israel from going ahead if it felt it must bomb Iran to prevent it from acquiring nuclear arms.

Defence analyst Paul Beaver said Iran's missile programme was fairly advanced but that it still needed to get accuracy and guidance systems right for long distances. "They are some way away yet from threatening Israel or U.S. bases," he said.

Speculation that Israel could strike Iran has mounted since its air force staged an exercise last month that U.S. officials said involved 100 aircraft. The United States has not ruled out military action if diplomacy fails to resolve the nuclear row.