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Euro zone bonds rebound as market searches for stable ground
May 15, 2015 / 8:07 AM / 2 years ago

Euro zone bonds rebound as market searches for stable ground

(Updates prices, adds quotes)

By John Geddie

LONDON, May 15 (Reuters) - Euro zone bond yields fell on Friday, tracking an overnight move in U.S. Treasury yields, although strategists said investors may still be reluctant to return to markets shaken by weeks of violent price swings.

German 10-year yields opened 5 basis points lower at 0.67 percent, still far from record lows of 0.05 percent hit last month. U.S. Treasury yields fell to 2.20 percent, down sharply from Thursday’s high of 2.29 percent.

But erratic swings in market prices, which have seen even the most liquid German bonds move in a 20 basis point range in recent trading sessions, have kept investors sidelined.

Citi’s head of rates strategy Alessandro Tentori said Friday’s moves alone would may not tempt investors back because many use ‘Value-at-Risk’ models that have strict limits in volatile conditions.

“I really want to see a protracted period of low volatility first, because most investors look at risk-adjusted returns,” said Tentori.

“When volatility drops and yields stay at 0.65-0.75 basis points then all of a sudden this seems like a lot of yield. But with volatility like it is right now, risk-adjusted yields are still very low.”

Traders were also cautious that the rally could be sustained with volumes low after several European countries were closed for a public holiday on Thursday.

There is also little on the schedule in terms of European data to drive market direction on Friday, with the focus on U.S. economic data due in the afternoon.

The sharp fall in U.S. Treasury yields, coupled with a slide in the U.S. dollar and a bounce on Wall Street, was attributed partly to weak U.S. producer data on Thursday that further dampens the prospect of a near-term interest rate rise.

Some strategists said this had been a cue for investors to dip their toes back into financial markets.

“This looks like a day of previously shell-shocked investors moving out of cash, back into taking risk,” said Mizuho’s Peter Chatwell.

Low-rated euro zone bond yields also fell on Friday. Italian and Spanish 10-year yields were down 4 basis points at 1.83 and 1.81 percent, respectively, while Portuguese equivalents were down 2 bps at 10.55 percent.

Greece’s increasingly fragile financials have done little to rattle investors this week, as talks with its creditors drag on.

But with top officials from EU paymaster Germany ripping into the European Central Bank over loans to Greek banks and calling for it to hold a referendum on bailout terms, Athens’ position within the currency bloc is in the balance.

This uncertainty may make it difficult for markets to find a firmer footing in the coming weeks, say traders. Greek 10-year yields were broadly unchanged on Friday at 10.52 percent.

Reporting by John Geddie; Editing by Anirban Nag and Ralph Boulton

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