* Some expect Bernanke to soothe concerns Fed could exit QE
* Dollar extends gains after Empire State, housing data
NEW YORK, June 17 The U.S. dollar climbed
against the yen for the first time in five sessions on Monday,
as stock markets rallied on expectations the Federal Reserve's
policy announcement this week will reassure investors that
monetary stimulus will remain in place.
The yen weakened again though in mid-afternoon New York
trade, following headlines from the Group of Eight meeting in
Northern Ireland. Traders said world leaders continue to back
Japan's current stimulus efforts, opening the door for further
The the U.S. currency remained the clear theme of the day's
trade. The U.S. currency extended gains as New York opened after
data showed growth in New York state's manufacturing sector
picked up in June, while sentiment among U.S. homebuilders
surged to the highest in seven years.
Speculation the Fed will start winding down its stimulus
program has led to a selloff in global equities in recent weeks,
helping the yen post its best weekly gain in nearly four years
against the dollar last week. The yen has exhibited a close
inverse relationship with equities, especially Japanese shares.
After recent volatility, investors are hoping that Fed
Chairman Ben Bernanke will reassure markets that the central
bank's policy will stay accommodative.
The Financial Times on Monday reported Bernanke is likely to
signal the US central bank is close to slowing its $85
billion-a-month in bond buying, but stipulate much depends on
what happens to the economy.
"The dollar has been selling off over the last week or so,
so I think it probably has more room to gain than to lose," said
John Doyle, currency strategist at Tempus Inc in Washington on
Monday. "That said, if (Bernanke) comes out and basically shoots
down any idea of tapering back QE this year, then obviously the
dollar is going to weaken on that news."
The dollar rose 0.5 percent to 94.96 yen, with the
session peak at 95.21 yen, helped by gains in Japan's Nikkei
share average. U.S. and European stocks also climbed. It
had earlier hit a session low of 94.08 yen, not far from a
two-month low of 93.78 yen set on Thursday. Support is seen
around 93.57, the 38.2 percent retracement of its September-May
Christopher Vecchio, currency analyst at DailyFX in New York
said there had been increased market talk in recent days that
the Fed could test market resolve by cutting Q3 by only $5
billion or so, but he noted the Fed triggers to slow down
stimulus, being 6.5 percent unemployment or annual inflation of
2.5 percent, are not close.
Speculator positioning, which showed a decline of long
dollar bets from extreme levels last Tuesday, with the data
being released Friday, could also support a bounce in the dollar
after the Fed meeting, analysts at BNP Paribas said.
The value of the dollar's net long position - or bets on
further gains - fell to $28.28 billion in the week ended June
11, from $39.12 billion the previous week, according to REuters
calculations. In late May, long dollar bets hit $43.77 billion,
the highest since at least June 2008.
Higher-yielding assets have been the victim of
disappointment over Japan's lack of new policy moves and
uncertainty about the Fed. Those factors have led to wild swings
in Tokyo shares and forced investors to unwind short yen
positions in recent weeks.
The yen also weakened against other major currencies, with
the euro rising 0.6 percent to 126.30 yen, still
within sight of a two-month trough of 124.95 hit last week. The
Australian dollar gained 0.6 percent and the Canadian
dollar rose 0.8 percent.
Over the medium term, with the Fed chief likely to reiterate
that the U.S. economy will continue to grow, prospects for the
dollar appear to be bright, analysts said.
"Fundamentally, the U.S. economic acceleration this summer
and the Fed's first steps towards the exit in third-quarter 2013
should lift the dollar through the second half of the year. We
see dollar/yen at 110 yen and euro/dollar at $1.20 by year end,"
Societe Generale said in a note on Monday.
The euro reversed losses late in the New York session and
climbed 0.2 percent to $1.3373 with the session peak at
$1.3379, not far off a 3-1/2-month high of $1.3390 set on
Thursday. Analysts said the move reflected positioning ahead of
Wednesday's Fed meeting.