March 22, 2012 / 8:52 PM / 6 years ago

FOREX-Euro down vs yen, dollar, as recession fears weigh

 * Unexpectedly weak euro zone PMI data hits euro
 * U.S. jobless claims data suggests improving recovery
 * Weak China data pushes Aussie to 2-month low vs US dollar
 * Yen up after Japan reports a trade surplus

 (Updates prices, adds quote)	
 By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss	
 NEW YORK, March 22 (Reuters) - The euro slid against the
dollar and yen on Thursday after a fall in manufacturing in the
euro zone's two largest economies and in China rekindled worries
about global growth. 	
 Manufacturing in the euro zone unexpectedly fell in March,
hit by a sharp fall in French and German factory activity,
according to purchasing managers' surveys. 	
 In addition, PMI data from China showed factory activity
there shrank in March for a fifth straight month, underscoring
worries about risks to global growth and driving down
risk-friendly currencies such as the Australian, Canadian, and
New Zealand dollars. [ 	
 The reports contrasted with U.S. data showing new
applications for unemployment benefits dropped to a four-year
low in the latest week.	
 "Today we have returned to the risk-off/risk-on trading
dynamic as a result of poor data out of Europe and China," said
Greg Moore, currency strategist at TD Securities. "The data all
contributed to this risk-off environment, so we have seen the
dollar going back to its negative correlation with risk assets."	
 In late afternoon trading, the euro fell 0.2 percent against
the dollar to $1.31880, but bounced from its overnight
low. The euro failed to break through resistance at $1.33,
suggesting a near-term top may be in place.  	
 Ray Attrill, chief currency strategist for the Americas at
BNP Paribas, noted that the euro at current levels is
over-valued against the dollar, based on the bank's models,
which include yield spreads, relative yield curve slopes and
risk sentiment, among others. 	
 He sees euro/dollar's fair value between $1.28-$1.29.	
 Against the yen, the euro hit a one-week low of 108.489
. It was last down 1.2 percent at 108.852, a far cry
from the euro's near five-month high of 111.43 yen struck on
 Analysts said the poor PMI surveys highlighted the risk of a
recession in the euro zone, and peripheral debt also showed
fresh signs of trouble.  	
 The Chinese PMI data weighed on growth-linked currencies,
especially the Australian dollar, given the country's
close trading links with China. 	
 The Aussie slid versus the U.S. dollar to a two-month low of
US$1.0333, below the 200-day simple moving average of US$1.0399
and the 200-day exponential moving average at US$1.0375. 	
 Barclays Capital recently lowered its AUD/USD forecast and
expects the currency pair to trade in a US$1.04-US$1.07 range
over the next 12 months. That is consistent with the bank's
technical strategists' expectations of it remaining in a
US$1.01-US$1.10 range over the next six to eight months.	
 "We expect high oil prices and signs of weaker Chinese
economic activity to keep AUD/USD near current levels over the
next month," the bank said.	
 Commodity prices, China's growth and yield advantage, as
well as cyclical and structural demand, are underlying reasons
why AUD/USD will not fall much below US$1.04 this year. They are
also the reasons why significant appreciation above US$1.07 is
not expected.	
 The New Zealand dollar was last down 0.8 percent against the
U.S. dollar at US$0.8084, breaching the 100-day
exponential moving average, currently at US$0.8096, for the
third time in seven sessions on an intra-day basis. New Zealand
dollar/U.S. dollar rose above that measure on a sustained basis
on Jan. 9.    	
 The yen was helped after data from Japan showed the country
unexpectedly logged a trade surplus of 32.9 billion yen in 	
February, against a forecast of a deficit of 120 billion yen.  	
 The dollar was last down 1.0 percent against the Japanese
currency at 82.540 yen. Earlier, the dollar hit a
one-week low of 82.329, well off an 11-month high of 84.187. 	
 Goldman Sachs on Wednesday put out a recommendation to short
the dollar against the yen. The U.S. investment bank said there
is a significant risk that the current uptrend in dollar/yen
could reverse in the new fiscal year that starts on April 1.	
 In addition, Goldman cited its expectations of an
improvement in Japan's current account balance.	
 "The recent deterioration in (Japan's) trade balance was
likely driven by temporary factors, and our Japanese economists
expect the current account balance to remain in surplus in the
next few years," Goldman said in a note.	
 The yen has fallen more than 7 percent versus the dollar in
2012, on the Bank of Japan's easing steps and after the country
last year posted its first annual trade deficit in 31 years due
to a surge in fuel imports after the Fukushima nuclear accident.	
 (Additional reporting by Julie Haviv and Nick Olivari; Editing
by Dan Grebler)	

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