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US natgas futures slip from 7-month high despite heat
July 25, 2012 / 1:16 PM / 5 years ago

US natgas futures slip from 7-month high despite heat

 * Front month down from highest level since December
 * Some heat still on tap in long-term outlooks
 * Recent storage data, drilling rig data supportive
 * Coming Up: EIA oil data Wednesday, EIA gas data Thursday
 By Eileen Houlihan
 NEW YORK, July 25 (Reuters) - U.S. natural gas futures slid more than 1
percent early Wednesday, pressured in some profit-taking from Tuesday's
seven-month high and on improved nuclear generation.
 But most traders said continued high heat across big consuming regions
should limit losses.
 Others cautioned that prices will have a hard time remaining above the $3
level, where gas tends to lose its appeal over coal for power generation.
 As of 9:06 a.m. EDT (1306 GMT), front-month August natural gas futures on
the New York Mercantile Exchange, which expire on Friday, were at $3.144
per million British thermal units, down 4.3 cents, or a little more than 1
percent.
 The nearby contract rose as high as $3.196 on Tuesday, its highest mark
since December.
 Since posting a 10-year low of $1.902 in late April, gas futures are up 65
percent on signs that record production is slowing and demand picking up as
electric utilities switch from coal to gas.
 
 BELOW AVERAGE BUILDS, BUT STOCKS STILL BLOATED
 Last week's gas storage report from the U.S. Energy Information
Administration showed total domestic gas inventories rose by 28 billion cubic
feet to 3.163 trillion cubic feet. 
 The build came in below Reuters poll estimates for a 34 bcf gain and fell
well short of last year's gain of 67 bcf and the five-year average increase for
that week of 74 bcf. It was the 12th straight week builds have fallen below
seasonal norms.
 The trend has helped pull the surplus to last year - now at about 509 bcf,
or 19 percent - down by 38 percent from late-March highs, raising expectations
that record-high storage can be trimmed to more manageable levels in the 17
weeks left before winter withdrawals begin.
 Storage now stands 470 bcf, or 17 percent, above the five-year average.     
 (Storage graphic: link.reuters.com/mup44s)    
 But total storage is about 77 percent full, a level not normally reached
until the second week of September. Producing-region stocks are at 84 percent of
estimated capacity.
 Concerns remain that the overhang could still drive prices to new lows later
this summer as storage caverns fill. 
 The storage surplus to last year must be cut by at least another 260 bcf to
avoid reaching the government's 4.1-tcf estimate of total capacity. Stocks
peaked last year in November at a record 3.852 tcf. EIA estimates that gas
storage will climb to 4.002 tcf by the end of October. 
 Early injection estimates for this week's EIA report range from 19 bcf to 31
bcf versus last year's build of 48 bcf and the five-year average increase for
the week of 61 bcf.
 
 PRODUCTION STILL HIGH
 While gross U.S. gas production has slowed some from January's record highs,
output is still flowing at near all-time peaks despite declines in dry gas
drilling and planned output cuts by several key producers.
 In its recent July short-term energy outlook, the EIA raised its estimates
for marketed gas production and consumption growth in 2012. 
 The agency expects marketed natural gas production in 2012  to rise by 2.8
bcf per day, or 4.2 percent, to a record 68.98 bcfd. Consumption this year is
seen climbing by 3.3 bcf daily, or 4.9 percent, to 69.91 bcf daily.
 Data from Baker Hughes last week showed the gas-directed rig count fell by
four to a 13-year low of 518. It was the eighth drop in the past nine weeks.
 
 (Rig graphic: r.reuters.com/dyb62s)
 A 45 percent drop in dry gas drilling in the last nine months has stirred
expectations that producers were getting serious about stemming the flood of
record gas supplies.
 But horizontal rigs, the type most often used to extract oil or gas from
shale, are hovering just shy of the record high 1,193 hit in May.
 Drillers continue to move rigs to more profitable shale oil and shale gas
liquid plays that still produce plenty of associated dry gas that ends up in the
market after processing.
 
 MORE FUNDAMENTALS
 The National Weather Service's 6- to 10-day outlook issued on Tuesday again
called for above-normal temperatures for much of the eastern two-thirds of the
nation, with below-normal readings on the West Coast and some normal readings in
the South and New England.
 On the nuclear front, total outages tallied 7,200 megawatts, or 7 percent of
total U.S. capacity on Wednesday, down from 9,400 MW on Tuesday, but still above
the 3,000 MW out a year ago and a five-year outage rate of 4,000 MW.
 
 The U.S. National Hurricane Center said a non-tropical low pressure system
south-southeast of Cape Race Newfoundland had a low, 20 percent chance of
further development later today. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1
through Nov. 30. 
 The latest government statistics show the Gulf of Mexico accounts for 6
percent of U.S. gas production and just over 20 percent of U.S. oil production.

 (Reporting by Eileen Houlihan; Editing by John Picinich)
 

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