TABLE-Reuters Tankan business confidence survey (Mar 2008)
(Click on [JP/TAN1] for main story)
TOKYO, March 19 (Reuters) - Japanese manufacturers' sentiment fell to a four-year low in March, battered by high raw materials costs, slack domestic demand, the yen's rise and worries over the U.S. economic outlook, a Reuters survey showed on Wednesday.
Corporate optimism in the service sector also stayed near the four-year low registered in January as many firms were feeling the pinch from rising crude oil and food prices and sluggish personal consumption.
Following is a table of indexes for key sectors and a comparison with the BOJ's tankan survey:
JUN MAR FEB JAN DEC NOV OCT
(f'cast) ============================================================================= MANUFACTURERS ( +8) +8 +9 +17 +21 +23 +21 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- (Materials) ( -2) -3 +3 +10 +13 +14 +17 - Textile/paper (-22) -22 -29 -33 -20 -20 -25 - Chemicals ( 0) +5 +18 +20 +13 +21 +22 - Oil refinery/ceramics ( 0) -11 -20 0 +10 +11 +20 - Steel/nonferrous metals (+17) +17 +20 +50 +80 +50 +60 (Manufactured products) (+14) +14 +13 +21 +27 +29 +24 - Food (+11) +11 +13 +25 +29 0 +22 - Metal products/machinery (+12) +16 +5 +22 +25 +14 +41 - Electric machinery (+16) +8 +13 +22 +25 +44 +19 - Autos/transport equipment (+11) +22 +22 +11 +38 +56 +20 - Precision machinery/others (+20) +20 +18 +17 +25 +17 +9 ============================================================================= NON-MANUFACTURERS ( +9) +2 +2 +1 +13 +9 +19 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- - Real estate/construction (-13) -12 -18 -22 -9 -9 +5 - Retail/wholesale ( +3) +3 -9 -15 +6 0 +3 + Wholesalers ( -7) -7 -13 -14 0 -7 0 + Retailers (+13) +12 -5 -16 +11 +5 +6 - Information/communications (+33) +10 +20 +44 +33 +25 +20 - Transport/utility (+23) +17 +20 +28 +31 +28 +47 - Other services (+19) 0 +15 +7 +19 +19 +28 ============================================================================= *** COMPARISON WITH BANK OF JAPAN TANKAN *** =======================================================
MANUFACTURERS NON-MANUFACTURERS
RTRS BOJ RTRS BOJ ------------------------------------------------------- JUN (Forecast) +8 - +9 - MAR (Forecast) - +15 - +15 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - MAR +8 - +2 - FEB +9 - +2 - JAN +17 - +1 - DEC (2007) +21 +19 +13 +16 NOV +23 - +9 - OCT +21 - +19 - SEP +24 +23 +14 +20 AUG +30 - +14 - JUL +28 - +19 - JUN +31 +23 +16 +22 MAY +29 - +21 - APR +28 - +26 - MAR +28 +23 +23 +22 FEB +30 - +20 - JAN +35 - +23 - DEC (2006) +34 +25 +21 +22 NOV +34 - +22 - OCT +34 - +20 - SEP +30 +24 +20 +20 AUG +30 - +22 - JUL +35 - +24 - JUN +39 +21 +20 +20 MAY +35 - +23 - APR +34 - +24 - MAR +25 +20 +16 +18 FEB +34 - +17 - JAN +33 - +22 - DEC (2005) +32 +21 +20 +17 NOV +27 - +21 - OCT +15 - +25 - SEP +20 +19 +19 +15 AUG +16 - +17 - JUL +16 - +18 - JUN +20 +18 +17 +15 MAY +23 - +16 - APR +18 - +16 - MAR +18 +14 +16 +11 FEB + 9 - +19 - Jan +17 - +15 - DEC (2004) +15 +22 +14 +11 NOV +21 - +19 - OCT +19 - +19 - SEP +26 +26 +20 +11 AUG +30 - +27 - JUL +28 - +17 - JUN +27 +22 +15 +9 MAY +31 - +10 - APR +23 - +12 - MAR +21 +12 +6 +5 FEB +15 - +4 - JAN +4 - +1 - DEC (2003) +3 +7 -11 0 ======================================================= ***ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS*** Q2. Where do you expect the Nikkei to be at the end of April?
AVERAGE HIGHEST LOWEST OVERALL 13,945 16,000 11,500 MANUFACTURERS 13,811 15,200 11,500 NON-MANUFACTURERS 14,098 16,000 12,000 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Q3. Where do you expect the dollar/yen exchange rate to be at the end of April?
AVERAGE HIGHEST LOWEST OVERALL 105.10 112.00 98.00 MANUFACTURERS 104.81 112.00 98.00 NON-MANUFACTURERS 105.44 112.00 100.00 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Q4. Where do you expect the 10-year Japanese government bond yield to be at the end of September? (percentage of respondents)
sub- 1.2- 1.4- 1.6- 1.8- 2.0- 2.2- over
1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0% 2.2% 2.4% 2.4% --------------------------------------------------------------------------- OVERALL 2 20 53 22 2 1 0 0 MANUF'S 2 16 57 21 3 1 0 0 NON-MANUF'S 3 24 48 23 1 2 0 0
The Reuters Tankan covers 200 manufacturers and 200 non-manufactures. A total of 227 responded to the first question between Feb. 28 and Mar. 14.
Formerly known as the Telerate Tankan, it was renamed after the acquisition of Quick Moneyline Telerate Corp by Reuters Group Plc RTR.L. (Reporting by Shigeo Kodama)
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