TABLE-Reuters Tankan business confidence survey (Mar 2008)

Tue Mar 18, 2008 11:31pm GMT
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  (Click on [JP/TAN1] for main story)
 TOKYO, March 19 (Reuters) - Japanese manufacturers' sentiment fell to a
four-year low in March, battered by high raw materials costs, slack domestic
demand, the yen's rise and worries over the U.S. economic outlook, a Reuters
survey showed on Wednesday.
 Corporate optimism in the service sector also stayed near the four-year low
registered in January as many firms were feeling the pinch from rising crude oil
and food prices and sluggish personal consumption.
 Following is a table of indexes for key sectors and a comparison with the
BOJ's tankan survey:
                                  JUN   MAR   FEB   JAN   DEC   NOV   OCT
                               (f'cast)
 =============================================================================
 MANUFACTURERS                      ( +8)   +8    +9   +17   +21   +23   +21
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 (Materials)                        ( -2)   -3    +3   +10   +13   +14   +17
 - Textile/paper                    (-22)  -22   -29   -33   -20   -20   -25
 - Chemicals                        (  0)   +5   +18   +20   +13   +21   +22
 - Oil refinery/ceramics            (  0)  -11   -20     0   +10   +11   +20
 - Steel/nonferrous metals          (+17)  +17   +20   +50   +80   +50   +60
 (Manufactured products)            (+14)  +14   +13   +21   +27   +29   +24
 - Food                             (+11)  +11   +13   +25   +29     0   +22
 - Metal products/machinery         (+12)  +16    +5   +22   +25   +14   +41
 - Electric machinery               (+16)   +8   +13   +22   +25   +44   +19
 - Autos/transport equipment        (+11)  +22   +22   +11   +38   +56   +20
 - Precision machinery/others       (+20)  +20   +18   +17   +25   +17    +9
 =============================================================================
 NON-MANUFACTURERS                  ( +9)   +2    +2    +1   +13    +9   +19
 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
 - Real estate/construction         (-13)  -12   -18   -22    -9    -9    +5
 - Retail/wholesale                 ( +3)   +3    -9   -15    +6     0    +3
  + Wholesalers                     ( -7)   -7   -13   -14     0    -7     0
  + Retailers                       (+13)  +12    -5   -16   +11    +5    +6
 - Information/communications       (+33)  +10   +20   +44   +33   +25   +20
 - Transport/utility                (+23)  +17   +20   +28   +31   +28   +47
 - Other services                   (+19)    0   +15    +7   +19   +19   +28
 =============================================================================
 *** COMPARISON WITH BANK OF JAPAN TANKAN ***
 =======================================================
            MANUFACTURERS         NON-MANUFACTURERS
            RTRS     BOJ             RTRS     BOJ
 -------------------------------------------------------
 JUN (Forecast)  +8      -                +9      -
 MAR (Forecast)  -      +15               -      +15
 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
 MAR             +8      -                +2      -
 FEB             +9      -                +2      -
 JAN            +17      -                +1      -
 DEC (2007)     +21     +19              +13     +16
 NOV            +23      -                +9      -
 OCT            +21      -               +19      -
 SEP            +24     +23              +14     +20
 AUG            +30      -               +14      -
 JUL            +28      -               +19      -
 JUN            +31     +23              +16     +22
 MAY            +29      -               +21      -
 APR            +28      -               +26      -
 MAR            +28     +23              +23     +22
 FEB            +30      -               +20      -
 JAN            +35      -               +23      -
 DEC (2006)     +34     +25              +21     +22
 NOV            +34      -               +22      -
 OCT            +34      -               +20      -
 SEP            +30     +24              +20     +20
 AUG            +30      -               +22      -
 JUL            +35      -               +24      -
 JUN            +39     +21              +20     +20
 MAY            +35      -               +23      -
 APR            +34      -               +24      -
 MAR            +25     +20              +16     +18
 FEB            +34      -               +17      -
 JAN            +33      -               +22      -
 DEC (2005)     +32     +21              +20     +17
 NOV            +27      -               +21      -
 OCT            +15      -               +25      -
 SEP            +20     +19              +19     +15
 AUG            +16      -               +17      -
 JUL            +16      -               +18      -
 JUN            +20     +18              +17     +15
 MAY            +23      -               +16      -
 APR            +18      -               +16      -
 MAR            +18     +14              +16     +11
 FEB            + 9      -               +19      -
 Jan            +17      -               +15      -
 DEC (2004)     +15     +22              +14     +11
 NOV            +21      -               +19      -
 OCT            +19      -               +19      -
 SEP            +26     +26              +20     +11
 AUG            +30      -               +27      -
 JUL            +28      -               +17      -
 JUN            +27     +22              +15      +9
 MAY            +31      -               +10      -
 APR            +23      -               +12      -
 MAR            +21     +12               +6      +5
 FEB            +15      -                +4      -
 JAN             +4      -                +1      -
 DEC (2003)      +3      +7              -11       0
 =======================================================
 ***ADDITIONAL QUESTIONS***
 Q2. Where do you expect the Nikkei to be at the end of April?
                          AVERAGE         HIGHEST       LOWEST
 OVERALL                      13,945          16,000       11,500
 MANUFACTURERS                13,811          15,200       11,500
 NON-MANUFACTURERS            14,098          16,000       12,000
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Q3. Where do you expect the dollar/yen exchange rate to be at the end of April?
                          AVERAGE         HIGHEST       LOWEST
 OVERALL                      105.10         112.00         98.00
 MANUFACTURERS                104.81         112.00         98.00
 NON-MANUFACTURERS            105.44         112.00        100.00
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Q4. Where do you expect the 10-year Japanese government bond yield to be at the
end of September? (percentage of respondents)
         sub-     1.2-    1.4-    1.6-     1.8-     2.0-     2.2-    over
         1.2%     1.4%    1.6%    1.8%     2.0%     2.2%     2.4%    2.4%
 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
 OVERALL      2      20       53      22        2        1        0      0
 MANUF'S      2      16       57      21        3        1        0      0
 NON-MANUF'S  3      24       48      23        1        2        0      0
 The Reuters Tankan covers 200 manufacturers and 200 non-manufactures. A
total of 227 responded to the first question between Feb. 28 and Mar. 14.
 Formerly known as the Telerate Tankan, it was renamed after the acquisition
of Quick Moneyline Telerate Corp by Reuters Group Plc RTR.L.
 (Reporting by Shigeo Kodama)


 
 
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