(Adds more data, table, traders)
MOSCOW, Sept 14 Russian oil exports will rise by
50,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter on bigger shipments
via the Druzhba pipeline to Central Europe and re-exports from
the Polish port of Gdansk, a schedule showed on Friday.
The quarterly export scheduled by pipeline monopoly
Transneft (TRNF_p.MM) showed overall seaborne and pipeline
exports to countries outside the former Soviet Union will amount
to 51.55 million tonnes or 4.11 million barrels per day, versus
4.06 million bpd in the third quarter.
Russian oil export duties will hit an all-time high from
October, following a rise in global prices in previous months,
but traders said this was unlikely to stop exports from rising
given the continued rally in global crude prices.
"This will be a tough quarter, especially October. People
rushed to evacuate as much crude as possible before the
introduction of new duties, so stocks are empty now," said a
trader with a Russian major.
"But it turned out that exports will continue to remain
attractive, which means domestic prices will also skyrocket," he
Despite the expected rise in exports, the fourth quarter
schedule is much lower than the all-time high of 4.45 million
bpd seen in July-September 2006, as Russian firms increasingly
tend to refine crude at home.
The schedule showed exports from the Black Sea ports of
Novorossiisk will remain flat, but will drop by 60,000 bpd from
Russia's top Baltic Sea port of Primorsk as ice conditions will
soon start restricting the access of tankers to the port.
Shipments from Tuapse will fall slightly as some traders
suspect volumes could be diverted to Rosneft's nearby Tuapse
refinery, which is being expanded.
Ukraine's Black Sea port of Yuzhny will keep volumes
unchanged while neighbouring Odessa will cut loadings.
LUKOIL GERMAN CUT
The rise in exports will mainly occur on the Druzhba
pipeline to central Europe as Poland, Germany, Hungary, the
Czech Republic and Slovakia will get more volumes.
Polish Baltic Sea port of Gdansk will almost double
re-exports of Russian oil following very poor allocations in the
two previous quarters.
Shipments to Germany will rise after a dispute between
Russia's second largest oil producer LUKOIL (LKOH.MM) and the
monopoly importer of Russian crude to Germany, trading firm
Sunimex, cut exports in the previous quarter.
LUKOIL has said it was unhappy with prices and wanted to
clinch direct deals with German refineries of BP (BP.L) and
Total (TOTF.PA) rather than export crude via Sunimex.
It cut supplies in July but reached a new pricing deal in
August, saying deliveries would return to normal.
The schedule, however, showed that despite a planned
increase of Russian crude deliveries to Germany to 5.7 million
tonnes from 5.45 million in the third quarter, LUKOIL's share
would be cut to 1.15 million tonnes from the planned 1.8
The volumes will be redistributed among other producers -
Surgut (SNGS.MM), Slavneft and TNK-BP TNBPI.RTS, Gazprom Neft.
On the CIS front, supplies will remain little changed to
Kazakhstan and Belarus, while in Ukraine LUKOIL will supply an
additional 700,000 tonnes to its Odessa plant, which will come
out of a major upgrade.
Following is a table of shipments by ports and destinations
(in millions of tonnes):
Q4'07 Q3'07 Q2'07 Q1'07 Q4'06
Novorossiisk 10.92 10.84 11.03 11.10 11.40
Tuapse 0.95 1.13 1.20 1.23 1.23
Germany 5.70 5.45 5.82 5.56 5.98
Poland 4.60 4.40 4.84 4.61 4.94
Czech Rep 1.00 0.95 1.31 1.12 1.35
Slovakia 1.50 1.30 1.55 1.24 1.20
Hungary 1.75 1.70 1.75 1.75 1.75
Butinge 0 0 0 0
(Mazeikiu refinery) 0 0 0 0
Odessa 2.40 2.70 2.70 2.90 3.80
Primorsk 18.38 19.08 18.66 18.00 17.00
Gdansk 2.10 1.15 1.84 2.32 1.86
Yuzhny 2.25 2.25 1.77 2.25 3.70
TOTAL 51.55 50.91 52.46 52.10 54.21
Naftan 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.20 1.84
Mozyr 2.25 2.08 2.25 2.20 2.16
Kremenchug 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.50
Lynos 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.50
Odessa 0.70 0 0 0 0
Pavlodar 1.20 1.05 1.20 0.90 0.90