PREVIEW-President's heir seeks top job in Armenia vote

By Hasmik Mkrtchyan

YEREVAN, Feb 15 (Reuters) - Armenia votes next week in a presidential election that is likely to transfer power from outgoing President Robert Kocharyan to his trusted ally and prime minister Serzh Sarksyan.

Opposition parties already allege the campaign is unfair, setting up Tuesday's election to be a test for stability in a country that has only in the last few years recovered from a period of political convulsions.

Nestled high in the Caucasus mountains, Armenia is in a region that is emerging as a vital transit route for oil exports from the Caspian Sea to energy-hungry world markets, though it has no pipelines of its own.

The energy flows could be threatened, analysts warn, if an unresolved conflict with neighbouring Azerbaijan flares again into fighting. A dispute between Armenia and its other neighbour, Turkey, complicates Ankara's relations with the West.

Opinion polls give Sarksyan, 53, a lead over the rest of the field, including former speaker of parliament Artur Baghdasaryan and Levon Ter-Petrosyan, the previous president who was forced to resign in 1998 but is now seeking a comeback.

Most observers predict that if Sarksyan is elected, his rule will be, in most aspects, a continuation of Kocharyan's 10 years in office that have been marked by economic growth and firm stands toward Azerbaijan and Turkey.

"Our candidate is the only one with an exceptional chance to win in the first round," said Armen Ashotyan, a lawmaker with Sarksyan's Republican Party. "If he wins, naturally a continuation of the policy direction will be ensured."

Sarksyan's victory though is not guaranteed. "There is serious competition going on," said analyst Alexander Iskanderyan.