China could play crucial role in Myanmar crisis

By Lindsay Beck

BEIJING (Reuters) - If there is one power that could pressure Myanmar to avoid a bloody crackdown on the country's biggest anti-government protests in 20 years, it is China.

Beijing, Myanmar's neighbour, is a major trade partner and protector.

Publicly, China has repeated its appeals for stability and avoided making the calls for restraint coming from Western powers, who fear the demonstrations could end as they did in 1988 -- with a military crackdown and huge loss of life.

Privately, though, China could be playing a more nuanced role and is increasingly concerned about its international image as its diplomatic weight grows and as it prepares to host the 2008 Olympics in Beijing, an event that has already become a lightning rod for activists.

"Generally speaking, China will avoid interfering in other countries' internal affairs," said Li Chenyang, director of the Southeast Asian Studies Centre at Yunnan University.

"But China certainly hopes Myanmar can maintain stability and resolve the issue in its own way," he said.

"China has been making more of an effort of late to convey concerns of the international community to the government in Burma," said a Western diplomat based in Beijing.

"China could demonstrate that it takes its international responsibility seriously by using its influence with the Burmese government to try to encourage a positive outcome there," the diplomat said.