UPDATE 2-Abu Dhabi deepens April crude supply cuts to Asia
(Adds comments, details, table)
By James Topham and Osamu Tsukimori
TOKYO, Feb 26 (Reuters) - OPEC member United Arab Emirates deepened its curbs on crude oil supply to Asia in April, surprising traders and giving a possible signal that the oil cartel could cut production further at its March meeting.
OPEC members have been trimming supply to refiners in line with agreed output cuts, but this has not been enough to stop oil prices sliding by over $100 a barrel since a peak in the middle of last year.
Various cartel members have signalled that further cuts could be agreed at the group's next meeting in March, and traders will be watching to see if OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia makes cuts to its April allocations.
"I think the chances are high that OPEC will cut output further as demand is slow," said Osamu Fujisawa, an oil economist at industry consultants FE Associates.
"Because the second quarter is a non-demand season in which many refinery turnarounds are scheduled, steady supplies would be a little extra."
In a statement on Thursday, Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (ADNOC), the main supplier for the UAE, said it will supply its customers with less of its flagship Murban crude and three other main grades in April than it did in March.
The move came as a surprise to traders, who had expected the UAE to keep April supply curbs largely unchanged from March.
"Without a further OPEC cut agreement from the (upcoming) assembly, I was expecting a similar range of cuts to March," said one trader.
The state oil firm ADNOC said it will supply 15 percent below contracted volumes of middle-distillate rich Murban in April, compared with a 10 percent cut in March.
Supplies of Lower Zakum and Umm Shaif crudes will be cut by 15 percent in April versus a 10 percent cut in March, while Upper Zakum will be cut by 17 percent versus a 15 percent cut in March.
"For Murban, the supplies had been cut by 15 percent (in February), so the cut was within expectations," said a trader with a North Asia-based refiner.
"Upper Zakum's 17 percent cut, however, was a surprise. Lower Zakum and Umm Shaif's 15 percent were also the biggest cuts since November and are larger than expected. This will also have an impact to our spot crude purchase plans."
The deeper cut to Upper Zakum, a medium heavy crude, follows the example of top exporter Saudi Arabia and other OPEC suppliers who have centred production cuts on heavier crudes.
"Marketing issues probably factored into the cuts, the idea being it's better to cut production of cheaper crudes than ones that sell higher," said one trader.
Allocations from Saudi Arabia for April will be made early next month, and will provide an indication of the OPEC heavyweight's stance for the March meeting after it had cut allocations ahead of a December OPEC supply curb agreement.
ADNOC also said it will continue to keep shipping limits on exports in place for April, depriving buyers of the option to load an additional 5 percent above contracted volumes on each cargo, a standard industry practice known as "operational tolerance".
Since September the cartel has decided to lower supply by a total of 4.2 million bpd, about 5 percent of daily world demand, and several OPEC members have signalled that the group may reduce production further when it meets again next month to decide oil output policy.
Following are the cuts in ADNOC term crude supplies to Asian lifters since November 2008.
Nov 08 Dec 08 Jan 09 Feb 09 Mar 09 Apr 09 Murban - % 15 % 15 % 15 % 10 % 15 % Lower Zakum - % 10 % - % 10 % 10 % 15 % Umm Shaif - % 5 % - % 10 % 10 % 15 % Upper Zakum 5 % 5 % 3 % 15 % 15 % 17 % (Reporting by James Topham and Osamu Tsukimori)
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