TEXT-S&P release on TNK-BP International
(The following statement was released by the rating agency)
Sept 5 - Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today it revised its outlook on Russia-based oil and gas company TNK-BP International Ltd. (TNK-BP) to stable from negative, after its shareholders agreed in principle on new governance structures. The 'BB' long-term and 'B' short-term corporate credit ratings on the company were affirmed.
"The outlook revision reflects our opinion that the agreement is a very important first step in resolving major differences between TNK-BP's shareholders with equal 50% stakes, the oil major BP PLC BP.L (AA/Stable/A-1+) and a consortium of Russian investors Alfa-Access-Renova (not rated)," said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Elena Anankina. "This largely removes the rating downside that could otherwise stem from the lack of strategic direction in the context of protracted shareholding disputes regarding control over the venture."
Under the new agreement, TNK-BP's board will include 11 members, four from each shareholder plus three independents. There will be a new CEO and a new management structure. In the medium term, there could also be an IPO of a minority stake in TNK-BP's subsidiary, subject to the Russian authorities' approval. The Russian authorities have publicly welcomed the agreement, which signals that TNK-BP is now unlikely to become a target of specific government interference or large litigations. This reduces its exposure to event risks, even though the general risks of operating in Russia remain high.
The new deal will take time to finalize and implement and is subject to major uncertainties. "It will not be easy to find independent directors and a new CEO, as well as other management team members to replace managers who have recently left," said Ms. Anankina. "It also remains unclear so far whether the group's financial policy regarding capital expenditures, dividends, and leverage will change." The shareholders' disagreements have prevented the board from approving its 2008 capital expenditure budget and dividends up to now.
What's more, several months of past uncertainties and the departure of BP technical specialists may affect TNK-BP's operating performance in 2008-2009 and delay some new oil exploration and development projects, such as Uvat or Russkoye, even if replacements are gradually found. It will also take some time for the new management team to establish a track record.
The rating on TNK-BP reflects its position as the third largest vertically integrated oil company in Russia, with large upstream operations, profitable refining and marketing, together with currently moderate debt levels. High oil prices should boost TNK-BP's 2008 profits. We expect its net debt as of mid 2008 to have fallen from $5.4 billion at year-end 2007, implying comfortable credit metrics. However, TNK-BP continues to face considerable risks of operating in Russia, including a weak institutional environment, resource nationalism, and very high cost inflation.
Ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect, the real-time Web-based source for Standard & Poor's credit ratings, research, and risk analysis, at www.ratingsdirect.com. It can also be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at www.standardandpoors.com; select your preferred country or region, then Ratings in the left navigation bar, followed by Credit Ratings Search. Alternatively, call one of the following Standard & Poor's numbers: Client Support Europe (44) 20-7176-7176; London Press Office (44) 20-7176-3605; Paris (33) 1-4420-6708; Frankfurt (49) 69-33-999-225; Stockholm (46) 8-440-5914; or Moscow (7) 495-783-4017. (New York Ratings Team)
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