TEXT-S&P release on TNK-BP International

Fri Sep 5, 2008 2:59pm BST
 
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 (The following statement was released by the rating agency)
 Sept 5 - Standard & Poor's Ratings Services said today it revised its
outlook on Russia-based oil and gas company TNK-BP International Ltd. (TNK-BP)
to stable from negative, after its shareholders agreed in principle on new
governance structures. The 'BB' long-term and 'B' short-term corporate credit
ratings on the company were affirmed.
  "The outlook revision reflects our opinion that the agreement is a very
important first step in resolving major differences between TNK-BP's
shareholders with equal 50% stakes, the oil major BP PLC BP.L (AA/Stable/A-1+)
and a consortium of Russian investors Alfa-Access-Renova (not rated)," said
Standard & Poor's credit analyst Elena Anankina. "This largely removes the
rating downside that could otherwise stem from the lack of strategic direction
in the context of protracted shareholding disputes regarding control over the
venture."
  Under the new agreement, TNK-BP's board will include 11 members, four
from each shareholder plus three independents. There will be a new CEO and a
new management structure. In the medium term, there could also be an IPO of a
minority stake in TNK-BP's subsidiary, subject to the Russian authorities'
approval. The Russian authorities have publicly welcomed the agreement, which
signals that TNK-BP is now unlikely to become a target of specific government
interference or large litigations. This reduces its exposure to event risks,
even though the general risks of operating in Russia remain high.
  The new deal will take time to finalize and implement and is subject to
major uncertainties. "It will not be easy to find independent directors and a
new CEO, as well as other management team members to replace managers who have
recently left," said Ms. Anankina. "It also remains unclear so far whether the
group's financial policy regarding capital expenditures, dividends, and
leverage will change." The shareholders' disagreements have prevented the
board from approving its 2008 capital expenditure budget and dividends up to
now.
  What's more, several months of past uncertainties and the departure of BP
technical specialists may affect TNK-BP's operating performance in 2008-2009
and delay some new oil exploration and development projects, such as Uvat or
Russkoye, even if replacements are gradually found. It will also take some
time for the new management team to establish a track record.
  The rating on TNK-BP reflects its position as the third largest
vertically integrated oil company in Russia, with large upstream operations,
profitable refining and marketing, together with currently moderate debt
levels. High oil prices should boost TNK-BP's 2008 profits. We expect its net
debt as of mid 2008 to have fallen from $5.4 billion at year-end 2007,
implying comfortable credit metrics. However, TNK-BP continues to face
considerable risks of operating in Russia, including a weak institutional
environment, resource nationalism, and very high cost inflation.
  Ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect, the
real-time Web-based source for Standard & Poor's credit ratings, research, and
risk analysis, at www.ratingsdirect.com. It can also be found on Standard &
Poor's public Web site at www.standardandpoors.com; select your preferred
country or region, then Ratings in the left navigation bar, followed by Credit
Ratings Search. Alternatively, call one of the following Standard & Poor's
numbers: Client Support Europe (44) 20-7176-7176; London Press Office (44)
20-7176-3605; Paris (33) 1-4420-6708; Frankfurt (49) 69-33-999-225; Stockholm
(46) 8-440-5914; or Moscow (7) 495-783-4017.
 (New York Ratings Team)


 
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