* 2013 demand growth almost unchanged, downside risk
* OPEC output falls in October on Iran, Saudi, Nigeria
* Lowers forecast demand for OPEC crude in 2013
* IEA report due Tuesday Nov. 13
By Alex Lawler
LONDON, Nov 9 World oil demand growth could fall
short of forecasts next year, exporter group OPEC said on
Friday, citing Europe's troubled economy and the risk of
weakness in faster-growing regions such as China and India.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, in a
monthly report, left its forecast for growth in world demand in
2013 almost unchanged, reducing it by 10,000 barrels per day
(bpd) to 770,000 bpd. But it said a larger reduction may follow.
"The forecast oil demand growth has a notable downside risk,
especially in the first half of the year," said the monthly
report from OPEC's Vienna headquarters. "Much of this risk is
attributed to not only the OECD, but also China and India."
OPEC, which pumps more than a third of the world's oil,
reiterated a warning it first made this summer that factors
including economic weakness could shave 20 percent from next
year's global demand growth assessment.
The report follows the release of OPEC's annual long-term
outlook on Thursday, which said the world would need less OPEC
oil in the next few years due to lower demand expectations and
higher supply from outside the group, including of shale oil.
OPEC's monthly report sees a similar trend next year and
reduced its estimate of the demand for OPEC crude by 80,000 bpd
to 29.72 million bpd, a drop from this year and below OPEC's
The group's production fell by 67,000 bpd in October to
30.95 million bpd, according to secondary sources cited by the
report, led by declines in output in Nigeria, Saudi Arabia and
OPEC's report is the second of this month's trio of major
oil outlooks to emerge. The U.S. government's Energy Information
Administration, often more bullish on demand than OPEC, on
Tuesday reduced its 2013 global demand growth estimate by 30,000
bpd to 890,000 bpd.
The International Energy Agency, adviser to 28
industrialised countries, issues its monthly report on Tuesday.
(Reporting by Alex Lawler; editing by William Hardy)