3 Min Read
WARSAW, Dec 7 (Reuters) - Following are comments by Polish central bank governor Adam Glapinski delivered on Wednesday after the bank left its key interest rate unchanged at a record low of 1.50 percent.
The central bank's statement after the decision is available here
Interest rates are at their lowest level in a history. If CPI will be at 1.5 percent next year, as it is predicted, then real rates will hover around zero. This will be an important stimulus (for the economy).
For the last three meetings (with the media) I'm saying that I would like to see a moment when the council starts thinking it (a rate rise), but it doesn't look like it will happen next year.
I expect with a huge likelihood that rates will remain at the same level (next year).
There was no discussion on cutting rates. You already know that there are no factors (which would prompt us) to discuss it, we have record low interest rates, we exited deflation in November, so (inflation-adjusted) rates will fall without our action next year anyway.
... As far as interest rates are concerned, there will be no vivid debate within a year. ...
We are in a wait-and-see mode.
GDP will radically accelerate when absorption of European Union's funds accelerates.
The whole of Europe experiences low economic growth, but the situation has not deteriorated. The situation in Germany has not deteriorated (recently). This is good news, this is a good starting point, as we are strongly correlated with the German economy. I'm an optimist when it comes to EU funds. We had expected this momentum to happen in the end of this year, but it is delayed to the second quarter of next year.
Our growth was faster than in developed countries. To be fully happy I would like to see it between 3 and 4 percent growth accompanied by low inflation.
The zloty exchange rate is affected by the new U.S. administration and this is obvious that this administration will support fiscal loosening, so the stock exchange and dollar reacted, as expected.
Dollar gained, (U.S.) yields rose, which weakened all emerging markets currencies. Does it have any impact on us? For exporters it is positive, for importers less positive, but it does not have a great impact on the (Polish) economy.
Our exchange rate is more volatile than are those of other economies of our region, because our economy is bigger. (Compiled by Marcin Goclowski; Editing by Marcin Goettig)