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Brokers say Poland's Bank Pocztowy could be worth up to $305 mln at IPO -sources
September 4, 2015 / 3:10 PM / 2 years ago

Brokers say Poland's Bank Pocztowy could be worth up to $305 mln at IPO -sources

WARSAW, Sept 4 (Reuters) - Four brokerages involved in
managing the initial public offering (IPO) of Poland's mid-tier
Bank Pocztowy IPO-BPOC.WA, expected in October, say the lender
plans to issue 4.6 million new shares, valuing the bank at up to
$305 mln.
    Pocztowy has said it wants to raise 200 million zlotys by
offering new shares in the IPO, but has not specified how many
shares will be up for sale and fund managers say the IPO could
be a hard sell for a smaller bank given current market
unpredictability.
    The brokerages - PKO BP, UniCredit, Societe Generale and
Ipopema - value the lender at 589 million-1,158 million zlotys
($155 mln-$305 mln), according to fund managers who provided
Reuters with the numbers (see table below). They did not give
details of how the brokers arrived at those figures. 
    The figures would suggest an IPO price in a range of
41.1-80.8 zlotys per share, according to Reuters calculations.
That assumes the bank does issue 4.6 million new shares and
includes Pocztowy's 9.73 million existing shares, according to
its website.
    The price range is speculative, however. If recent market
volatility continues, that could prompt the bank to delay the
IPO or force it to review how many shares it issues.
    According to a senior financial market source close to the
deal, the banks' owners estimate Pocztowy's book value at 700
million zlotys after the share issue.
    Its minority shareholder PKO BP is expected to sell
0.8 million shares, or a third of its 25 percent stake in the
IPO, the market sources said.  
    Pocztowy is Poland's 20th biggest bank by assets, and is
nearly 75 percent owned by the state-run postal service Poczta
Polska IPO-POCZ.WA, expected to conduct its own IPO in 2016.
    Some fund managers say they will not be interested in the
Pocztowy IPO unless the price is very low, below its book value.
    "We're not interested in this offer, because this is a weak
quality asset. If it was a superbank, there would be buyers, but
it is not," said one local fund manager. "Whether it would be
possible to place these shares depends on sellers' desperation,"
one fund manager said.
    "Demand may be very low, even on these lowest (valuation)
levels)," another fund manager said, also on condition of
anonymity.
    Piotr Przedwojski, fund manager at local Caspar Asset
Management with 400 million zlotys under management, is slightly
more optimistic.
    "It has a big distribution chain and if the management board
convinces investors that it is able to show a nice growth thanks
to the money gathered from the share issue, valuation at 1.0
times book value seems to be attractive," he said.    
    Two sources said that current weak sentiment on bank stocks
means the whole IPO hinges on the feedback from investors. A
decision will be taken in mid-September, with PKO counting on
more than book value.    
    "PKO will not sell its stake if the price is 1.0 times book
value, while Poczta Polska may take part in the IPO buying some
new shares," a source said. 
    A second source close to the transaction confirmed that a
final decision on whether to proceed with the IPO will be taken
after meetings with investors.
    A Poczta Polska spokesman declined to comment.    
        
    VALUATION IN MILLION ZLOTYS:
PKO BP:            642-845
UniCredit:         771-864
Societe Generale:  663-1158
Ipopema:           589-838 
($1 = 3.7912 zlotys)

 (Reporting by Marcin Goclowski, Adrian Krajewski, Anna Koper
and Jakub Iglewski; Editing by Susan Fenton)

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