Will global trade treaty hurt more than it helps?

By Laura MacInnis

GENEVA (Reuters) - Many poor countries fear they will lose jobs and revenue from a new global trade treaty that trade ministers will try to push towards conclusion next week.

This anticipated hardship is one of the main reasons a World Trade Organisation WTO.L accord on tariff and subsidy cuts -- in its seventh year of negotiation -- has proved so hard to clinch.

Conventional wisdom dictates that increasing export opportunities can help poverty reduction by raising incomes in developing countries, whose farmers and manufacturers often struggle to sell their wares abroad.

But some economists believe that the Doha round deal under negotiation would open up borders too abruptly, flooding vulnerable markets with cheaper foreign goods and services, and make developing countries worse off.

"Many developing country negotiators are asking themselves if the emerging deal is better than no deal at all," said Tufts University economic researcher Timothy Wise, who co-authored a new study warning unfettered trade could harm poor farmers.

"It is not hard to understand why many developing countries are questioning the value of a Doha agreement," he added, estimating poorer governments will lose four times more in tariff revenue than they get from a trade-boosting deal.

The talks were launched in the Qatari capital in late 2001 to boost world trade and help developing countries export their way out of poverty.

Amy Barry of the aid advocacy group Oxfam said negotiators from the developing world need to resist pressure to accept WTO proposals that do not adequately overhaul unfair trade rules.