Oct 23 (Reuters) - Rosneft, the world’s largest oil company by output, is preparing to triple oil exports to China to some 1 million barrels per day, seeking to secure market share and billions of dollars in pre-payments.
Yet Russian pipeline monopoly Transneft and some analysts question whether Rosneft has the oil in the ground to honour its supply commitments, detailed below.
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- Rosneft plans to pump 4.2 mln barrels per day in 2013, or 40 percent of the Russian total.
- Rosneft currently supplies China with 300,000 bpd via a spur of the Eastern Siberia - Pacific Ocean (ESPO) oil pipeline running from Skovorodino to Mohe.
- In June, Rosneft and CNPC agreed to double oil flows to China to 600,000 bpd in a $270 billion deal between 2018 and 2037 with partial pre-payments.
- In October, Rosneft agreed with Sinopec to supply 200,000 bpd per year for 10 years, starting in 2014, in a deal that is partly pre-paid and valued at $85 billion.
- The capacity of the Skovorodino-Mohe spur will be increased to 400,000 bpd from 2015 and to 600,000 bpd in 2018.
- From Jan. 1 next year, Rosneft plans to start sending China 140,000 bpd of crude oil via a pipeline from Kazakhstan to China.
- Rosneft will supply 183,000 bpd to the planned Tianjin refinery in northern China, a joint investment with CNPC to be launched by the end of 2020.
- The ESPO line to the Pacific Port of Kozmino will export 420,000 bpd in 2013 and 600,000 bpd in 2014. Rosneft is a supplier on this route, through which oil also goes by tanker to China.
ROSNEFT‘S SUPPLY BASE
- Vankor: Launched in 2009 and currently pumps 435,000 bpd. It was initially planned to peak at 500,000 bpd in 2013, but output of 23 mln t is now expected in 2016.
- Verkhnechonskoe: Launched in 2008, now pumps 156,000 bpd - earlier considered its peak. Verkhnechonskoe and nearby fields may produce 240,000-400,000 bpd by 2017, according to reports.
- Srednebotuobinskoe: JV signed by Rosneft and CNPC in Oct. 2013. Output expected at 20,000 bpd in 2014 and at more than 100,000 bpd from 2017, below earlier estimates.
- Yurubcheno-Tokhomskoye: Due to start production in 2016 after delays. Peak production had originally been envisaged at 200,000 bpd.
- Kyumbinskoe: Rosneft and Gazprom Neft JV due to come on stream in 2017 with production of 6,000 bpd, rising to 217,000 bpd in 2029. A 300,000 bpd pipeline will connect Yurubcheno-Tokhomskoye and Kyumbinskoye fields to ESPO at the end of 2016.
- Rosneft plans to invest around $65 bln by 2022 to bring new deposits on stream, in particular, Suzun, Tagul, Russkoye, Lodochnoye, Yurubcheno-Tokhomskoye and Kyumbinskoye.
- Thanks to new tax relief to produce tight oil, Rosneft plans to extract an additional 150,000 bpd by 2020 and up to 270,000 bpd by 2030.
- Rosneft’s single largest oil producing unit is Yuganskneftegas, pumping crude in West Siberia from Soviet times. Its current output stays at 1.3 mln bpd. (Compiled by Katya Golubkova; Editing by Douglas Busvine)