* Ukraine's gas to be cut at 0700 GMT on Thursday
* Ukraine says it will maintain European supplies
* Europe has stocks to ride out crisis - analysts
By Vladimir Soldatkin and Guy Faulconbridge
MOSCOW/KIEV, Jan 1 Russia was preparing to turn
off gas deliveries to neighbouring Ukraine on Thursday, raising
the spectre of disruptions to European Union supplies.
European states are anxious to avoid a repeat of what
happened in January 2006 when, during a similar row, Moscow cut
off supplies to Ukraine, causing a brief fall in gas supplies
passing through Ukraine on the way to the rest of Europe.
Moscow says it will honour its contracts to supply European
customers with gas, and these have enough reserves to manage
without Russian supplies for days, but not weeks.
Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko also gave
assurances to European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso
that there would be no disruptions to supplies to the EU, the
European Commission said in a brief statement.
Pipelines that cross Ukraine carry about one-fifth of the
EU's gas needs. A new cut-off could tarnish Russia's reputation
as a reliable energy supplier and further undermine Ukraine's
Alexei Miller, head of Russian gas giant Gazprom (GAZP.MM),
said talks with Ukrainian officials had failed to settle a
dispute over $2 billion in unpaid gas bills and the price at
which Ukraine will buy Russian gas next year.
"From 10 a.m. (0700 GMT) on Jan. 1, Gazprom will completely,
100 percent, cease gas supplies to consumers in Ukraine," Miller
told a news conference at the company's headquarters in Moscow
late on Wednesday.
Miller, a close ally of Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, said
Ukraine should take full responsibility for causing the crisis.
Russia says the cut-off does not apply to shipments to
Europe, but there could be a knock-on effect if it causes a drop
in pressure in the transit pipelines or if Kiev halts flows to
Europe to use them as a bargaining chip.
Germany's E.ON (EONGn.DE) and BASF BASF.DE and Italy's ENI
(ENI.MI) are among the biggest customers for Russian gas.
However, EU states are less vulnerable to supply disruptions
than they were three years ago.
Economic recession and a mild start to winter have reduced
demand and left enough heating fuel in Western European storage
sites to last a few days without much Russian gas, though
analysts say a cut of more than a week would cause problems.
"Consumers (in Germany) need not worry," a spokesman for
Germany's BDEW energy and water association was quoted as saying
in Der Spiegel's online edition. "The tanks are quite full."
Countries in eastern and central Europe are likely to feel
any disruption first because they are closer to the potential
bottleneck in Ukraine.
Russia's 2006 dispute with Ukraine prompted calls for the EU
to reduce reliance on Russian gas, but Gazprom forecasts that
the EU will come to rely on Russia for as much as one-third of
its gas by 2015, up from about a quarter now.
The reliability of energy supplies from Russia will top the
agenda of EU ministers meeting in the Czech Republic next week.
Putin called Barroso on Wednesday, before the talks broke
down, to explain possible consequences of the row for the
27-nation EU, Barroso's office said.
Russia says the row is purely commercial, but it has in the
past been accused of using energy to blackmail its neighbours.
It has been fiercely critical of the drive by Ukraine's
pro-Western leaders to join NATO.
Putin launched a scathing attack on Ukraine on Wednesday.
He said its leaders had snubbed an offer to buy gas in 2009
at a below-market price of $250 per 1,000 cubic metres, he
alleged they would block Russian gas supplies to Europe, and
said they had brought Ukraine to the verge of economic collapse.
"The situation in Ukraine is aggravated by the fact that a
fight between different clans is having a negative impact on the
economy," Putin said at a televised meeting with President
That appeared to be a reference to the bitter rivalry
between Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko and Tymoshenko.
Some Western analysts say Moscow may be trying to undermine
Yushchenko's presidency in favour of Tymoshenko, who it sees as
a less awkward partner. Kremlin officials say there is no reason
why Russia should subsidise Ukraine with cheap gas.
Both Moscow and Kiev have much at stake. Ukraine's hryvnia
currency suffered steep falls last month despite a loan from the
International Monetary Fund, and the row with Russia could
further hurt investor confidence.
Russia -- already viewed with suspicion in the West after
its war with Georgia in August -- has also been hit hard by the
global crisis and does not want to forfeit its lucrative
position as Europe's biggest gas supplier.