* South Sudan sails into top terrorism rankings-survey
* Qaeda-linked turmoil keeps Somalia in top risk spot
By William Maclean
LONDON, Aug 3 Somalia is most at risk from
terrorist attack, followed by Pakistan, Iraq and Afghanistan and
the new nation of South Sudan, according to a ranking by global
The consultancy's latest Terrorism Risk Index also assesses
threats to be rising in Yemen, Iran, Uganda, Libya, Egypt and
A Maplecroft statement said increased dangers seen in Yemen
and Uganda were caused by al Qaeda-associated violence, those in
Iran stemmed from attacks by Sunni Muslim rebel group Jundollah
and those in Egypt and Libya originated in terrorist and
criminal attempts to exploit Arab Spring political unrest.
Nigeria is beset by militant raids in the Niger Delta, by
sectarian violence and by radical Islamist attacks in the north.
The top four rankings were unchanged from Maplecroft's
previous survey issued in Nov. 2010 but South Sudan, which came
into being last month on secession for the north, replaced the
Palestinian Territories at number five due to the high average
number of people killed per attack in violence there.
The UK-based company's index rates 198 countries on the
number, frequency and intensity of terrorism attacks, plus the
likelihood of mass casualties occurring. While based on
historical data, it is intended as a forward-looking assessment.
The survey's reporting period of April 2010 to March 2011,
partly overlaps with the June 2009 to June 2010 data used in its
It defines terrorism as the calculated and purposeful use of
violence employed to influence the attitudes and behaviour of
people and governments, and takes its raw data from the U.S.
National Counter-terrorism Center's Worldwide Incidents Tracking
QAEDA OFFSHOOTS SEEN STOKING RISKS
Maplecroft sees 20 states at "extreme risk". Apart from the
top five, these are Yemen 6, Palestinian Territories 7,
Democratic Republic of Congo 8, Central African Republic 9,
Colombia 10, Algeria 11, Thailand 12, Philippines 13, Russia 14,
Sudan, 15, Iran 16, Burundi 17, India 18, Nigeria 19 and Israel
There was an increased risk from regional offshoots of al
Qaeda including Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula and Al-Qaeda
in the Islamic Maghreb, the survey said, adding that a spate of
revenge attacks by militants in Pakistan following the killing
of al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden there in May showed his death
had not led to a short-term fall in militancy.
On Somalia, Maplecroft said that despite suffering some
losses in Mogadishu, the Islamist militant group al-Shabaab
continued to hold much of south and central Somalia and "launch
some of the most devastating attacks in the capital" in its
fight against a Western-backed interim government.
South Sudan got its rating "primarily due to the intensity
of terrorist attacks, with an average of 6.59 fatalities per
terrorist incident, almost three times that of Somalia at 2.23."
At least seven rebel militias are fighting the new
government's forces which are trying to establish stability
after winning separation as part of the climax to a 2005 peace
deal ending decades of civil war with Khartoum.
NORWAY LOW DOWN THE SCALE
Despite its elevated risk ranking, the statement said,
"South Sudan's death toll of 211 from terrorist attacks pales in
comparison to the top four countries. Over the same period
Somalia suffered 1,385 deaths, Pakistan 2,163 deaths, Iraq 3,456
deaths and Afghanistan 3,423 deaths, which together account for
over 75 percent of the world's 13,492 fatalities.
Iran continued to experience a small but lethal number of
mass-casualty attacks including a twin suicide bombing in
Zahedan in July 2010, which collectively killed at least 28.
One of the largest changes in rankings was Uganda, which
jumped 20 places to 22 following bombings in Kampala in July
2011 that killed 79 people. The attack marked the first strikes
on foreign soil by al Shabaab.
The only Western European country seen at high risk was
Greece, assessed at 27, down from 24, due to violent left-wing
groups. The next most at risk was Britain, rated at 38, up from
46, while France was at 45, barely changed from 44.
The survey period did not cover an attack in Norway by
anti-Muslim zealot Anders Behring Breivik, who killed 77 people
in Oslo and a nearby island.
After the attack, some analysts argued that terrorism
monitoring had been skewed towards the threat of violence from
Muslim groups, ignoring the danger posed by far right
The survey rated Norway at a lowly 112.
(Reporting by William Maclean; Editing by Myra MacDonald)