May 31, 2017 / 9:58 AM / 4 months ago

YouGov sets out methodology for British election model

Postal voting papers for the UK general election, which is due to take place June 8, 2017, are seen in this illustration picture taken May 26, 2017. REUTERS/Russell Boyce/Illustration

LONDON (Reuters) - British pollster YouGov on Wednesday set out the methodology behind its model which produced a shock projection that Prime Minister Theresa May would lose control of parliament in the June 8 election.

In stark contrast to opinion polls that have until the past week shown May on course for a big win in the snap election she called, the YouGov model suggested May would lose 20 seats and her 17-seat working majority in the 650-seat British parliament.

The polling organisation said the model, developed by its data science team and London School of Economics Professor Ben Lauderdale, employed a technique called multilevel regression and post-stratification analysis to estimate the result in individual constituencies.

The polling company said it would update the first findings of the model later on Wednesday.

Reporting by Paul Sandle; editing by Guy Faulconbridge

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