LONDON (Reuters) - One year on from Britain’s shock vote to leave the European Union, cracks are starting to appear in the FTSE 100’s rally, as concerns on both political and economic fronts saw UK shares fall for a third week in a row.
UK shares were hit hard in the immediate aftermath of last June’s Brexit vote, but recovered speedily as a fall in sterling boosted firms that earn revenue in foreign currencies.
While the FTSE ended 2016 up more than 14 percent, fresh political concerns stemming from a hung parliament in this month’s election and uncertainty around Brexit negotiations have put the brakes on UK shares this year.
Despite hitting a series of record highs along the way, British blue chips are up just 4 percent year to date with the FTSE the weakest major European market in terms of performance. The pan-European STOXX 600 has gained more than 7 percent.
“The market tries to run higher looking at the benefits from the weaker pound, but then is struck back by the reality of the fact that this is an inherently unsustainable situation,” Ken Odeluga, market analyst at City Index, said.
Though sectors such as housebuilders, which were hit hard, have largely bounced back, with Persimmon (PSN.L) and Bellway (BWY.L) making headway this year, investors remain concerned about firms exposed to the British economy, such as retailers.
A depressed sterling has increased concerns around a rise in inflation, which has hit shares in British retail stocks .FTNMX5370 which could come under pressure as consumers’ pockets are squeezed.
“We expect subpar growth as Brexit bites. We see greater political instability, including a risk of early elections and a new government, but also a softer Brexit and easier policy,” Morgan Stanley’s economy and strategy team said in a note.
The picture is lacklustre in dollar terms especially, with both the FTSE 100 and mid caps roughly flat since the Brexit vote.
Firms in internationally exposed sectors such as miners, tobacco companies and consumer goods have been clear winners, though renewed weakness in the price of oil has dogged the FTSE 100’s energy constituents.
Reporting by Kit Rees; Editing by Alison Williams