LONDON The euro could fall swiftly below parity with the dollar and France's borrowing costs soar to 2 percent more than their German equivalents if far-right leader Marine Le Pen won the French presidency in May, according to U.S. bank JPMorgan.
In a note to clients dated Friday but sent to media on Monday, analysts from the bank discussed various scenarios after a Le Pen victory in April and May.
"Euro and oil have decent downside on a Le Pen victory: euro could fall about 10 cents to about $0.98 over a few weeks and oil could decline by 5-10 percent," the note said.
"In the remote scenario of a Le Pen Presidency with supportive government and parliament, 10-year Bunds could approach 0 basis points and 10-year France-Germany (yield spread) 200 basis points."
(Reporting by John Geddie and Patrick Graham, editing by Nigel Stephenson)