April 5, 2017 / 8:23 PM / 4 months ago

TREASURIES-Yields fall after March Fed minutes viewed as dovish

5 Min Read

    * Traders see Fed sticking to gradual pace of rate hikes
    * 3-, 5-year yields hit more than five-week lows
    * Yields initially rise on Fed balance sheet discussion

 (Updates prices, adds comments)
    By Sam Forgione
    NEW YORK, April 5 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields fell on
Wednesday, with three- and five-year yields touching more than
five-week lows after traders viewed the latest Federal Reserve
meeting minutes as indicating the central bank was maintaining
an outlook for a gradual pace of interest rate increases. 
    Yields initially shot higher after the Fed minutes, which
also showed most of the central bank's policymakers think it
should take steps to begin trimming its $4.5 trillion balance
sheet later this year as long as the economic data holds up.

    Longer-dated yields in particular surged on that view within
the central bank, since halting or phasing out reinvestments
would remove a considerable source of demand for longer-dated
Treasuries, analysts said. 
    The Fed bought Treasury and mortgage-backed bonds on an
unprecedented scale in the wake of the financial crisis to help
keep interest rates low to spur hiring and growth.
    Both longer- and shorter-dated yields reversed course,
however, in what analysts said was a realization among traders
that the Fed was maintaining its "dovish" pace of rate
increases. Shorter-dated yields are considered most vulnerable
to Fed rate hikes. 
    Yields on Treasuries maturing in three and five
years fell the most on the day and hit their lowest
levels since Feb. 27 of 1.426 percent and 1.837 percent
respectively. 
    "The market is anticipating a more hawkish stance than they
actually get," said Lou Brien, a market strategist at DRW
Trading in Chicago. He said the Fed's reinforcement of its
gradual pace of rate hikes likely disappointed those
expectations and led yields lower. 
    Policymakers appeared to see upside risks to the economy,
but there was still disagreement on how close the Fed was to
meeting its 2 percent inflation goal this year.
    Despite reversing their initial rise, longer-dated yields
still fell less than shorter-dated yields given the discussion
of balance sheet tapering, analysts said. 
    The details of the discussion "put the market on notice that
(the Fed's) buying is not going to go on forever," said Collin
Martin, director of fixed income at the Schwab Center for
Financial Research in New York. "There are going to be some
other buyers that will need to step in there and make those
purchases."
    Benchmark 10-year Treasuries were last up 4/32 in price to
yield 2.334 percent, from a yield of 2.350 percent late Tuesday,
while 30-year yields were down 1 basis point at 2.981 percent. 
    
    Wednesday, April 5 at 1603 EDT (2003 GMT):
                               Price                  
 US T BONDS JUN7               151-31/32    0-10/32   
 10YR TNotes JUN7              125-60/256   0-52/256  
                               Price        Current   Net
                                            Yield     Change
                                            (pct)     (bps)
 Three-month bills             0.79         0.8026    0.000
 Six-month bills               0.9025       0.9192    0.000
 Two-year note                 100-10/256   1.23      -0.020
 Three-year note               100-140/256  1.4343    -0.028
 Five-year note                100-32/256   1.8486    -0.029
 Seven-year note               99-236/256   2.1371    -0.024
 10-year note                  99-72/256    2.3319    -0.018
 30-year bond                  100-100/256  2.98      -0.012
                                                      
   DOLLAR SWAP SPREADS                                
                               Last (bps)   Net       
                                            Change    
                                            (bps)     
 U.S. 2-year dollar swap        33.25        -0.75    
 spread                                               
 U.S. 3-year dollar swap        28.75        -1.00    
 spread                                               
 U.S. 5-year dollar swap        11.00        -0.50    
 spread                                               
 U.S. 10-year dollar swap       -2.75        -1.00    
 spread                                               
 U.S. 30-year dollar swap      -39.75        -1.00    
 spread                                               
    
    
    

 (Reporting by Sam Forgione; Editing by Lisa Von Ahn and Chris
Reese)
  

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