October 7, 2016 / 9:51 PM / 10 months ago

TABLE-Reuters U.S. primary dealer poll results

NEW YORK, Oct 7 (Reuters) - These are the results of a Reuters poll of U.S. primary dealers following
the latest U.S. non-farm payrolls data from the government on Friday. 

 Primary Dealer      Where do you  Where do     Where do     What is the   What is the   Will the coming    What
                     see the       you see the  you see the  probability,  probability,  U.S. presidential  probability
                     federal       federal      federal      in percent,   in percent,   election stand as  do you assign
                     funds rate    funds rate   funds rate   that the Fed  that the Fed  a deterrent to     the U.S.
                     midpoint at   midpoint at  midpoint at  will raise    will raise    the Fed raising    entering
                     the end of    the end of   the end of   rates at the  rates at the  rates at the       recession in
                     Q4 2016?      Q2 2017?     Q4 2017?     November      December      November meeting?  the next 12
                                                             meeting?      meeting?                         months?
 BAML*                                                                                                            
 Barclays*                                                                                                        
 BMO                    0.625         0.875        1.125          15            65        MINOR DETERRENT        15
 Bank Nova Scotia       0.625         0.875        1.375          10            60             MAYBE             15
 BNP Paribas            0.625         0.625        0.625          5             70              YES              40
 Cantor Fitzgerald      0.625         0.875        1.125          5             75              YES              20
 Citigroup***            0.75           1          1.25                                                           
 Credit Suisse*                                                                                                   
 Daiwa                  0.625         0.875        1.125          15            65        MINOR INFLUENCE        30
 Deutsche Bank           0.63         0.88         1.13           15            60              YES              30
 Goldman Sachs          0.625         0.875        1.375          10            55                                
 HSBC                   0.375         0.625        0.625                                                          
 Jefferies**            0.625         0.875        1.125          15            85              NO               10
 JP Morgan               0.63         0.88         1.13                                                          30
 Mizuho                 0.625         0.625        0.625          20            80              NO               10
 Morgan Stanley*                                                                                                  
 Nomura                 0.625         0.875        0.875          5             60              YES              20
 RBC*                                                                                                             
 RBS*                                                                                                             
 Societe Generale       0.625         0.875        1.125          10            75              YES              20
 TD Securities          0.625         0.625        0.875          15            65              YES              25
 UBS*                                                                                                             
 Wells Fargo*                                                                                                     
             Median     0.625         0.875        1.125         12.5           65                               20
                                                                                                                         
 *** NOTE: Citibank did not make changes to its rate forecast following the latest U.S. non-farm payrolls                
 data.                                                                                                      
 ** NOTE: Jefferies - If Fed hikes in November, no hike in December. Only one move expected this year.                   
 * Denotes the primary dealer declined or did not respond in time for the poll                                           
 
 (Reporting by Richard Leong, Trevor Hunnicutt, Charles Mikolajczak, Saqib Ahmed, David Randall in New York; and Krishna
Eluri and Kailash Bathija in Bangalore; Compiled by Daniel Bases; Editing by)

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