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TABLE-Reuters U.S. primary dealer poll results
December 17, 2014 / 11:51 PM / 3 years ago

TABLE-Reuters U.S. primary dealer poll results

NEW YORK, Dec 17 (Reuters) - These are the results of Reuters poll of U.S. primary
dealers following the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting on Wednesday. For the
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 Primary Dealer       When do     Will the  Where do   Where do   Would a     When do you
                      you expect  Fed hike  you see    you see    continued   expect the Fed
                      the Fed to  rate      the fed    the fed    oil price   to stop
                      start       more      funds      funds      drop deter  reinvesting
                      raising     than      rate at    rate at    the Fed     principal of
                      rates?      once in   the end    the end    from        maturing
                                  2015? If  of 2015?   of 2016?   raising     Treasuries &
                                  yes, how                        interest    MBS?
                                  many                            rates?      
                                  hikes?                                      
 BAML*                                                                        
 Barclays             June 2015   Yes (3)   0.75-1.00  2.75-3.00  no          Q1 2016
 BMO                  June 2015   Yes (3)   0.75-1.00  2.00-2.25  depends     Q1 2016
 Bank of Nova Scotia  April 2015  Yes (5)   1.25       2.50       maybe       Q3 2015 (MBS),
                                                                              Q1 2016 (Tsys)
 BNP Paribas          June 2015   Yes (3)   0.75-1.00  2.00       no          Q1 2016
 Cantor Fitzgerald    June 2015   Yes (3)   1.00       2.00       no          Q1 2016 (MBS),
                                                                              Q3 2016 (Tsys)
 Citigroup*                                                                   
 Credit Suisse        June 2015   Yes (4)   1.00-1.25  2.00-2.25  depends     Q1 2016 (MBS)
 Daiwa                June 2015   Yes (3)   0.75-1.00  2.50       depends     Q1 2016
 Deutsche Bank        June 2015   yes (3)   1.00       2.50       depends     Q4 2016
 Goldman Sachs*                                                               
 HSBC                 Sept 2015   Yes (2)   0.50-0.75  1.25-1.50      -       -
 Jefferies            Dec 2015    No        0.25       2.25       depends     Q4 2016
 JPMorgan             June 2015   Yes (3)   1.00       2.50       maybe       Q1 2016
 Mizuho               2016        No        0.00-0.25  1.25       yes         Q1 2016
 Morgan Stanley       Jan 2016    No        0.125      2.125      yes         Q2 2016
 Nomura               Sept 2015   Yes (2)   0.50-0.75  1.50-1.75  yes         Q1 2016 (MBS),
                                                                              Q3 2016 (Tsys)
 RBC**                June 2015   Yes (3)   1.00       3.00       no          Q4 2015
 RBS                  June 2015   Yes (3)   0.75-1.00  2.25-2.50  no          -
 Societe Generale     June 2015   Yes (3)   1.00       2.50       no          -
 TD Securities        Sept 2015   Yes (2)   0.75       1.75       no          Q4 2015
 UBS                  June 2015   Yes (5)   1.375      2.875      no          -
 Median               June 2015   Yes (3)   1.00       2.50       no          Q1 2016
 * Denotes the primary dealer declined or did not respond in time for the poll.
** RBC said the Fed would target the interest rate on excess reserves, not the effective fed
funds rate

     

 (Additional reporting by Anu Baraia in Bangalore; Sam Forgione, Sinead Carew, Michael
Connor, Saqib Ahmed and Richard Leong in New York; Editing by Leslie Adler)

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