* Relatives of Sept. 11 victims can sue Saudi
* Legal action could take years, have little impact
* But reminder of political, financial pressures on Saudi
* Riyadh preparing for big international bond issue
* Investment policy in U.S. may be reviewed
(Updates with analysis, context, implications for bond issue)
By Andrew Torchia and Tom Arnold
DUBAI, Sept 29 The Saudi riyal fell against the
U.S. dollar in the forward foreign exchange market on Thursday
after the U.S. Congress voted to allow relatives of victims of
the Sept. 11 attacks to sue Saudi Arabia.
Any legal action could take years to wind through the U.S.
court system, and analysts said there might be little if any
impact on the Saudi economy or state finances. But the decision
by Congress was an unwelcome reminder of political and financial
pressures on Riyadh as low oil prices strain its budget.
Saudi Arabia has been preparing to make its first
international issue of sovereign bonds next month to raise $10
billion or more, but some Gulf bankers said the issue might now
be delayed to give investors time to digest the news.
Similarly, the legal threat could make Riyadh less likely to
choose New York for a listing of shares in national oil giant
Saudi Aramco. An offer of Aramco shares is expected as soon as
2017, possibly raising tens of billions of dollars, and Saudi
officials have said they are considering several foreign
The Senate and House of Representatives voted overwhelmingly
on Wednesday to override President Barack Obama's veto of
legislation granting an exception to the legal principle of
sovereign immunity in cases of terrorism on U.S. soil.
This clears the way for attempts to seek damages from the
Saudi government. Riyadh has denied longstanding suspicions that
it backed the hijackers who attacked the United States in 2001.
Fifteen of the 19 hijackers were Saudi nationals.
One-year dollar/riyal forwards, which are trades
scheduled to take place 12 months from now, were at 550 points
early on Thursday, up from Wednesday's close of 330 points. They
rose as far as an eight-week high of 625 points.
The Saudi riyal is pegged at 3.75 to the dollar in
the spot market, so banks often use the forwards market to hedge
"In the short term you might have volatility but the
legislation will take a decade to have a result, so markets will
calm down," predicted a banker involved in Gulf currency trade,
adding the main impact might be to saddle the Saudi government
with tens of millions of dollars in annual legal fees.
Five-year Saudi credit default swaps, used
to insure against the risk of a sovereign debt default, rose
slightly to 157 points from 152, and the Saudi stock market
But the price of state-run Saudi Electricity Co's
April 2023 dollar Islamic bond, one of the few
outstanding international bonds from Saudi Arabia, did not move
Some analysts speculated that trade and investment ties
between Saudi Arabia and the United States could be hurt. The
kingdom owns $96.5 billion of U.S. Treasury bonds, according to
the latest official U.S. data, and is believed to hold at least
that sum in other U.S. assets and bank accounts.
"From a Saudi foreign ministry perspective, there will be a
review of investment policy and that could move the kingdom down
a different path, which could include diversification away from
U.S. Treasuries," the Gulf banker said.
In May, Saudi foreign minister Adel al-Jubeir said the
proposed U.S. law "would cause an erosion of investor
confidence" in the United States, though he added that Riyadh
was not threatening to pull its money out of the country.
Riyadh has been selling several billion dollars in U.S.
bonds each month to cover its budget deficit, and bankers think
it is unlikely to step this up as a result of the Congress vote.
That is because few other markets or currencies provide the
combination of liquidity and security of the $13 trillion U.S.
Saudi Arabia has also been eagerly courting investment by
top U.S. companies such as General Electric Co to help
diversify its economy beyond oil, and a trade or investment war
with the United States could damage its economic reform drive.
"The U.S. is a market where the Saudis will continue to
invest. I don't think they'll adopt a knee-jerk reaction to
their investments," said John Sfakianakis, economist with the
Jeddah-based Gulf Research Centre.
"If it makes sense, they will continue to keep their assets
in the United States."
(Additional reporting by Katie Paul in Riyadh; Editing by