FACTBOX-Scenarios for Kosovo after independence

(Reuters) - Kosovo declared independence from Serbia on Sunday, ending a long chapter in the bloody break-up of Yugoslavia but cementing a bitter ethnic frontline in the Balkans.

Western powers back moves by Kosovo's 2 million ethnic Albanians for their own state, nine years after NATO went to war to save them from Serbian forces. Serbia and Russia are opposed.

Here are some scenarios for what could happen next:

WEST RECOGNISES KOSOVO, EU TAKES OVER

The United States, Britain, Germany, France and Italy recognise Kosovo. Most EU members recognise the new state in a second wave, but six -- Cyprus, Greece, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovakia and Spain -- do not. The EU begins deploying 2,000 police, judges and civil administrators, taking over from the United Nations. Serbia is likely to recall its ambassadors from countries that recognise Kosovo, but will not break diplomatic relations.

SERBIA TELLS KOSOVO SERBS TO REJECT SECESSION

Backed by Belgrade, Kosovo's 120,000 remaining Serbs reject the secession. They form their own parliament in the Serb-dominated north. Serbia will strengthen a network of parallel structures already present in Kosovo, providing administrative, schooling and health services for the Serb minority, and cementing a de facto partition. Serbs in the north will reject any cooperation with the new EU mission, but will not ask the NATO peace force to leave. The West does not expect a major exodus of Serbs, but some will continue to leave gradually as many have done in the nine years since the war. It remains to be seen how far Serbia might go in trying to formally prise away the north.

SERBIA ENACTS COUNTER-MEASURES AGAINST NEW STATE

Serbia brings into force an "Action Plan" of measures against the new state. Analysts say these might include border closures, a trade embargo and rejection of Kosovo passports. Serbia could also disrupt electricity and water supplies, as well as telephone and internet services, which are all still closely linked between Serbia and its breakaway province. It has ruled out a military response.