FACTBOX: Scenarios in autonomy referendum in Bolivia

(Reuters) - Voters in the wealthy Bolivian farming region of Santa Cruz held a referendum on Sunday on a proposal for greater autonomy from the leftist central government.

The pro-autonomy movement is expected to win, in part because of planned vote boycott by Santa Cruz residents who support President Evo Morales and are against the referendum.

The hours and days following the referendum will be key in determining whether the crisis between the central government and the opposition in the provinces will intensify or ease.

Here are some possible scenarios:

YES VOTE, NEGOTIATIONS

Santa Cruz overwhelmingly votes "yes" on autonomy, forcing Morales to negotiate with Bolivia's nine departments on allowing them more control over courts, tax revenue, natural gas production, land reform and even police forces.

Any deals would necessarily have to include agreements on reforms to Bolivia's Constitution, as it does not currently include statutes on autonomy.

Santa Cruz residents might take over central government buildings to celebrate the success of the vote, raising concerns of clashes with opponents.

Three other provinces where the conservative opposition is strong -- Tarija, Beni and Pando -- would likely continue with their plans to hold autonomy referendums but might agree to drop the more extreme demands like having an independent judiciary or immunity from prosecution for local officials, in exchange for having control of their natural resources.