Cartoon and Pope rows lead bin Laden to target Europe

By Mark Trevelyan, Security Correspondent - Analysis

LONDON (Reuters) - Osama bin Laden's latest message shows that he sees Europe as fertile soil for al Qaeda, especially at a time of tension between free speech and Muslim values, but is unlikely to signal an imminent attack.

Security analysts and officials say there is no evidence that bin Laden's statements contain coded instructions to al Qaeda operatives and he has no track record of delivering warnings immediately before an attack.

But Wednesday's message was striking in its focus on Europe as opposed to the United States, whose President George W. Bush earned only a passing reference as "your oppressive ally who ... is about to depart the White House".

"Europe has become the battleground for al Qaeda ... It's a very clear statement of intent by bin Laden," said Sajjan Gohel of the Asia-Pacific Foundation, a security think-tank in London.

"Perhaps al Qaeda has recognised that sending a message to the United States is simply not worth it, it's not going to influence matters there. Perhaps it is a conscious effort to look at Europe again as the most exciting place to send its message," said Sebestyen Gorka, adjunct professor at the Marshall European Center for Security Studies in Germany.

Bin Laden sought to rekindle Muslim anger over Danish newspaper cartoons satirising the Prophet Mohammad, which triggered violent international protests in 2006.

Demonstrations have flared again in Muslim countries since papers last month republished one of the most controversial drawings -- showing Mohammad with a bomb in his turban -- after Denmark arrested three men over a plot to kill the cartoonist.

"They're trying to stoke up tensions ... This is very much the al Qaeda doctrine of trying to reprise old grievances," Gohel said of Wednesday's message.