Bhutto death drives Pakistan into "uncharted waters"

By Luke Baker - Analysis

LONDON (Reuters) - The assassination of opposition leader Benazir Bhutto has thrown Pakistan into one of the worst crises in its 60-year history, raising the spectre of widespread civil unrest and the threat of cancelled elections.

Analysts say President Pervez Musharraf, who stepped down as army chief of the nuclear-armed country two weeks ago under international pressure, could seize the moment to reimpose emergency rule and cancel, or at least postpone, elections scheduled for January 8.

Even if they go ahead, the process was thrown into disarray after Nawaz Sharif, one of the main contenders, announced he would boycott the poll and called on Musharraf to resign.

"It is fair to assume now that elections cannot go ahead," said Farzana Shaikh, an expert on Pakistan and an associate fellow at the Chatham House analysis group in London.

"The electoral process has been stopped dead in its tracks. I think there is a very real possibility that Musharraf will decide that the situation has got out of control and that he needs to impose emergency rule again."

Shaikh said Pakistan, a key U.S. ally in the battle against militants in Afghanistan, was entering "uncharted waters", which could lead to instability in a region that has seen three wars fought between Pakistan and its nuclear neighbour India.

"This is not the first crisis Pakistan has faced since its inception in 1947, but I would be inclined to say that it is the worst convergence of crises we have seen," Shaikh said.

Bhutto, 54, died in hospital after being targeted in a combined shooting and suicide bomb attack as she campaigned in the city of Rawalpindi among thousands of supporters.