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G-zero and the end of the "9/11" era top 2012 risks: Bremmer

Friday, January 06, 2012 - 04:21

Jan. 6 - Eurasia Group president Ian Bremmer discusses the biggest risks facing the markets in 2012 and says the next phase in the middle east and the post-9/11 environment pose the greatest uncertainty.

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Political risk will dominate global headlines and point wall and we we haven't seen in decades. I mean Bremer president of Eurasia group and these are the ten biggest risks that I see. For 2012. Let's start with number ten. Venezuela. President Hugo Chavez with ailing health and major elections at the end of the year. Whether he wins or loses but he lives or dies 28 wall is going to be an incredibly challenging year for south America's leading oil exporter. Number nine South Africa. Another country facing elections at the end of the year the president Zuma who has been fighting. To ensure that cohesion of his own African National Congress. It's -- have to move towards populism. To ensure that he has a successful election. Number eight. Egypt. We have a long and increasingly bloody fight between the military in the Muslim Brotherhood on the one side and secularist that are demonstrating interior square. Number seven. China. Security tensions between China and the United States across Asia are likely to grow more significant point -- Many of America's allies are very concerned about Chinese dominance of Asia will be looking towards the US for political and security integration. While they look to China for economic integration. Number six. Pakistan. A country having difficulty. With basic governance. Major humanitarian crises. Large swaths of the territory and under control. And no longer a significant money producing alliance with the United States. The potential for spillover as the US pulls out of Afghanistan. Bringing India into a conflict they've been able to avoid for the better part of a decade makes Pakistan with paying note. In point well. And now and number five. North Korea. Perhaps the single most important geopolitical risk in an individual country this year. Comes from the transition. To a 28 year old third son Kim Jong -- In the world's most to -- carrion regime. It's inconceivable that he'll be able to run the country the only question is whether he'll be allowed to be a symbolic figure. Number four the United States. Not the elections in the United States but after that. There's going to be trillions of dollars that line for a potentially lame duck government. Or maybe a second term Obama presidency have to be done in November and December and the markets hate that level of uncertainty. -- Three as the eurozone. Only number three. And part that's because the eurozone is not going fragment but it is gonna muddle through they have the capacity to continue to kick the can even though it's getting harder and harder. The markets are gonna hate that but they have nothing to do but put downward pressure on the sovereigns in Europe number two. The G zero and the Middle East. A world without leaders that's the G zero and it has risks all over the world but nowhere more so in the Middle East where the United States is that taker. Not a maker of foreign policy. Instead it'll be regional powers like Saudi Arabia and Iran and Turkey in most cases competing for influence. And the toppers for 2012. Feet and the nine elevenths -- There's no long been one of the US is out of Iraq Afghanistan has an Andy. And yet the areas that we look at and geopolitics are increasingly economic risks and finally to the red -- more important this year than many. In 2012. Almost half of the world's GDP has either elections. Or has political transitions and yet they're not that significant in terms of political risk. China's not going to experience a hard landing in 2012 the state will stay. As the most important investor driving that economy it's gonna create major problems for the Chinese in the medium term. But not this year. There will be no fragmentation. Of the eurozone possibly the single most overstated risks in the media today. And finally it is 2012. I feel confident there will be no Mayan apocalypse of course if I'm wrong there's nothing you'll be able to -- Thank you so much I'm in Bremer president of years.

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G-zero and the end of the "9/11" era top 2012 risks: Bremmer

Friday, January 06, 2012 - 04:21