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Wealth Strategies: Be concerned about job growth outlook

Friday, January 04, 2013 - 04:52

Jan. 4 - Moody's John Lonski says that, despite strength in the December jobs report, concerns over corporate profits and the economy may mean employment growth will be weak in 2013.

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-- motivated December but still managed to post some solid numbers Ford 2012. Economic uncertainty and weak earnings guidance sort gonna continue hiring in this new year. For his thoughts and I -- asking economist at Moody's good to see you. It's here in a data we got today what impressed you most in this jobs report. But the gains -- construction employment in manufacturing employment stood out. And I would say that I was impressed by the fact that once again -- -- increase in payrolls. Exceeded. Expectations. We're now looking at a rate of job creation. That closely resembles what happened during the previous economic recovery. Which stands out somewhat of any negative sense is the Lackey. Rate of growth for employment income. Well -- that a moment but going forward how confident are you in hiring continues. Edit it does then when -- workers finally start to get those races that they're they've been asking for. Well we've got to be concerned about the outlook for jobs growth. Mostly because. Of the very weak performance. By profitability. And business sales during the past two waters. We had a decent holiday shopping season how will ever. The strong finish -- the holiday shopping season owed much to Christ this pounding that points towards. Narrower profit margins -- retailers and it disabled so holds true for December. Auto sales. Thus if profits. Are going to be relatively flat. It's hard would imagine. Why businesses will -- with strong incentive. To increase. The rate of high -- activity and it would it be surprising. If jobs growth slackened off somewhat. During the first quarter up 2013. And shot is also a concern about the government jobs won't we see cuts in government employment this year in light up -- are. You know budget talk in Washington. While fiscal austerity is going to be witness for some time. And it's not only. Washington. That will be. Treasury payrolls but a number of state and local governments also will proceed more cautiously with hiring activity. That's -- this of course has the added a fact. Of reducing. The wage bargaining power of workers. As more workers are released from the public sector. Because of fiscal austerity. Bill -- -- entering the private sector and as a result. Helping to curb private sector wage growth but earlier you mentioned what are wages that are grow more rapidly. While the month of -- December of wages were up by only two point 1% from a year ago. And what we find is that because of lingering high unemployment in the United States as well lives. Intensified. Competition from the cheaper work forces of emerging market countries. The upside for wage and salary growth. In the United States will remain limited. John on another not so optimistic topic here. What sort of situation are we fighting the long term unemployed in right now. Is there evidence that those people who have been out of work for very long difficult time are getting hired yet. Well you know the fact that Washington felt compelled to preserve. Extended unemployment benefits. Tells us that a lot of the long term unemployed has not improved by much. And of course this is a very worrisome development. Not only it is a -- social reasons. But also for economic reasons because the water these -- budget these individuals stay out of work. The more their skills. Fall behind the rest of the workforce. And the more costly it's going to be to bring these long term unemployed individuals. Back in aid to. The workplace. -- John -- thanks so much job. My pleasure Rhonda. I'm Rhonda schaffler this is writers.

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Wealth Strategies: Be concerned about job growth outlook

Friday, January 04, 2013 - 04:52

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