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Reuters Breakingviews: Arab Spring makes region $225 billion poorer

Tuesday, January 15, 2013 - 03:31

Jan. 15 - Ousting dictators in the Arab world doesn’t come cheap, according to Breakingviews calculations. The hope is wealth will be more evenly distributed, but the fear is the new regimes are less growth-friendly.

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The cost of the Arab Spring and the -- -- of an icon of the UK high street. Two stories we're talking to talking apparently -- -- how to -- today I'm let's solve this Arab Spring peace. -- 220 -- billion dollars pour this region has become as a result of the Arab Spring and these are your numbers breaking news -- well. Are based on IMF testaments and effectively what we did was we took the old estimates from 2000 to 2010 before the Arab Spring of growth rates. And then I took the new estimates on this is for Libya Syria and Egypt. Egypt being the biggest these economies to the latest 2012 us mr. growth rate and calculated what the gap was over the next over the five years to 2015. -- you make you make the point oh are you know makes the points back. It's difficult given rising commodity prices it's different difficult given the slowdown. In the global economy to actually work out exactly happened in December what do you think this -- -- A pretty good guys are rough guess it's 10% of the GDP that's been lost -- the that would be GDP that's been lost. And that corresponds. Pretty well to the kind of chaos and economic decline that we've seen all three of these countries. It it's going to be particularly rough and Syria which is still in the middle of civil war. And Libya is really far from peace that you can see even in Egypt where there is -- continue continuity of government. That these revolutions come with a pretty significant economic cost in terms of trying to set up in new regime. I'm and then the piece goes on talk about the the the effects of this investigation body arm and -- more even distribution of the wealth or perhaps -- governments we hope so what other evidence about. Not yet and that that's perhaps the most concerning thing is that it's not at all clear that in -- he really had. Any. Any redistribution from the oligarchs -- Them prospered. To it to the people. If that calms -- people saying this is a worthy sacrifice if it doesn't and it just looks like a waste of time from the economic perspective all right I'm a case that have backed peace accords in front of breaking news site. I'm the updates this this agency added the device may tell me that our president what my child of wouldn't be in the same amount out of hanging around the smoking cigarettes are petitions and out already sacks and often and outside. The HM me I think you're you're like most British aspect of this that's gotten a remarkable amount of attention for retailers have been doomed for years I mean. That's probably been awhile since you went to record store earth -- you know music sort of buy your music it's very 70%. To 90% of music is now downloaded or sold via the Internet. I'm so it shouldn't be a big deal and everyone remembers their childhood and the time when they first discovered the acts. I'm recording that -- them so much from there were fourteen and it was at HMV so it's an icon -- and that's the reason -- writing about it of course but but but but the bigger point head is is of course there's this main battle with the Internet. It's you know all you have on the side of HIV is a lot of sentimental memories and everything else including efficiency distribution cost. Is on the side of the Internet who wins Internet. All right -- many thanks Edward how to ask for more generous heading inside to what's our US breaking news show every day 12:30 eastern 1730 GMT. I'm -- of trouble this is what's it's.

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Reuters Breakingviews: Arab Spring makes region $225 billion poorer

Tuesday, January 15, 2013 - 03:31

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