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World At Risk: Europe heads to the polls

Friday, May 09, 2014 - 04:19

May 9 - The ascent of fringe parties have put the European elections on everyone’s agenda. And they could bring some unintended consequences, says Citi’s Senior Political Analyst Tina Fordham.

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I'm Tina Florida -- I'm the chief political analyst at Citigroup. It's. European parliamentary elections are not usually market moving but this year they're taking place in the context of modest euros and recovery. And also in the unprecedented support for different parties so in that sense. They're more importance -- this happens. It might be the case -- that concerns. Are somewhat overdone. We didn't believe that ask you looked -- the strongest ever work on games and parties. But it's not necessarily the case that they will undermine the performance of the European. Say. We do things. That advantage these traditional center left and Centre right -- will still come together. -- pass legislation. But the way that this high performance of fringe parties to come and meet new extreme an alternative parties. It's important. Is it is foreshadowing. Next year's election cycle which zooms in that sense. The national governments will pay very close attention to what happened there especially the UK -- Well this is a new development right the the advent of these needs to be called them. Marks -- change the idea of having. Strong contingent of Euro skeptic party is is. Something that has. Brussels and Berlin quite worried about what it will mean. For policy making but one of the features that added to this uncertainty is is how these groups worked together right because. These groups are primarily. Defined by being anti the rise of the -- -- we talk about it so. How can a lot of anti his work together that's very much remains to be -- you already see that you can't -- -- for us has said. For example that he will work. With -- in the pen the national front. And so lines being drawn. In other words. These groups may very well not worked together in a block. But they add to this sense of political fragmentation that we've been talking about for the last -- years. That could be some unintended consequences when it comes to the dynamics in Brussels. You know I mentioned that these traditional groupings -- parliamentary grouping has since left center right. Could actually come together to pass legislation sort of circumvent the influence. Non mainstream parties in parliament. Another possibility of course is that says these fringe parties. Decides to come together. On issues where they know where they share views and so immigration regulation are the most likely areas there where there is a possibility. Of cooperation. Yeah. Didn't. I think the main reason why it investors and financial markets. Should pay attention to the European parliamentary elections is the fact that 2015. -- the resumption of the eurozone political cycle again and keeping you. -- played fifteen. We will have the first. Recovery there elections technically he's. In Spain and Portugal and Ireland and in other and so. Is that since NAFTA governments can be very concerned about performance of these parties to the extent of which there referendum on independence. And I do expect. That in the twenties to the election cycle you have been lagging indicators. Where support from the fringe parties we'll stay strong. Because unemployment remains high priced at modest growth. Probably doesn't do enough to change the way the public think about. What.

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World At Risk: Europe heads to the polls

Friday, May 09, 2014 - 04:19