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惠誉:中国政府提供流动性支持,部分银行可能面临紧缩
September 20, 2017 / 7:00 AM / a month ago

惠誉:中国政府提供流动性支持,部分银行可能面临紧缩

(The following statement was released by the rating agency) Link to Fitch Ratings' Report: China Banks: Funding and Liquidity here SHANGHAI/SINGAPORE, September 20 (Fitch) 本文章英文原文最初于2017年9月12日发布于:<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/1029089">Fitch: China Supporting Liquidity, Some Banks Exposed to Squeeze 惠誉评级表示,继今年加强金融监管之后,中国政府持续为金融机构提供必要的维持金融系统稳定性的流动性。但是,银行流动性和资金状况的减弱,导致部分银行更容易受到政策失 误或市场信心丧失的影响,从而引发流动性紧缩。 中国人民银行为金融系统注入流动性的金额和频率逐渐上升,以弥补中资银行临时现金流的短缺。有迹象表明通过正式渠道提供的普遍支持(如中央银行借款和同业拆借)增加,旨在 管理金融体系风险和控制实体经济的融资成本。 截至2017年7月末,中国人民银行资产负债表中对存款机构(银行、信用社和金融企业)的债权超过9万亿人民币(合1.4万亿美元),是2014年第三季度末时的六倍,当 时央行宣布放松货币政策并新出台了一系列管理系统流动性的政策工具。 过去几年内,银行逐步恶化的流动性状况使流动性支持增多变得更为必要。四大国有银行和邮储银行仍然是银行间系统流动性的净提供者,但其提供流动性的幅度较几年前减少。其他 所有由惠誉授予评级的中型商业银行目前似乎都是流动性的净接受者。在2013年,所有由惠誉授予评级的中型商业银行均为流动性净提供者。 流动性状况减弱的部分原因是低效率放贷导致借款人的净运营现金流入相对现金流出减少。在过去,中国的投资选择有限、存款利率和存贷比具有严格上限并且经济增长速度极高,因 而过去的银行存款非常充足,而这些因素已逐步转变。 资产与存款之间逐渐扩大的差距主要来自表外理财产品和同业拆借。中型银行尤其依赖这些资金来源。我们预计,截至2017上半年末,表外理财产品和同业拆借占中型银行资金的 43%,导致其资产负债错配,相比之下国有银行的这一比例为19%。 理财产品和同业负债的期限都极短,这可能是市场混乱的最主要触发因素,尽管政府已经确保迄今为止发生资金中断的情况极少。系统性压力也有可能来自整个系统内的流动性紧缩, 可能是由政策失误或导致信心动摇的重大事件所致,例如再次出现持续、大额的净资金外流。 在压力有限的情景下,对非存款资金依赖程度最高、并且是流动性净接受者的中型银行将更容易受到流动性短缺的影响。国有银行可能从转向安全资产中获益,这有利于他们的生存力 评级。 政府展现出通过近期的流动性注入为银行系统提供普通支持的意愿,并且政府仍具有大量资源可用于解决银行系统的恶化。例如,银行间的流动性短缺也可能通过提取在央行的22万 亿存款准备金而得到缓解。但是,庞大且仍渐长的银行系统规模意味着,即便相对于中国政府的大量资源而言,提供支持的成本也有可能非常大。 更多信息请登录www.fitchratings.com 或点击本文上方链接参见惠誉的专题报告《中资银行:资金及流动性》。 联系人: Jack Yuan(袁牧) 联席董事 金融机构评级 +86 21 5097 3038 惠誉(北京)信用评级有限公司上海分公司 中国上海市浦东新区陆家嘴环路479号 上海中心大厦34层3401室 Dan Martin 高级分析师 惠誉快讯 +65 6796 7232 Media Relations: Wai-Lun Wan, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9935, Email: wailun.wan@fitchratings.com. 详情参见<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com">www.fitchratings.com 注意:本新闻稿为中文译本。如有疑问,请以英文版本为准。 ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. 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