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September 25, 2017 / 8:21 AM / 3 months ago


(The following statement was released by the rating agency) HONG KONG/SHANGHAI, September 25 (Fitch) 本文章英文原文最初於2017年9月14日發布于:<a href="">Fitch: China Unlikely to Ban Fossil-Fuel Cars within 20 Years 惠譽評級表示,中國不太可能在未來20年內實現完全禁止傳統化石燃料汽車的銷售。 惠譽預計,取代傳統車輛的新能源汽車將在中國越來越受歡迎。但同時惠譽認為,政府現有的將新能源汽車市場份額在2025年前提升到20%的目標,並不容易實現。這是因為政 府對新能源汽車的補貼預計在2020年後結束,並且電池技術和充電基礎設施瓶頸可能限制新能源汽車在私人部門的廣泛應用。 工業和信息化部副部長辛國斌近期在一個論壇上表示,中國監管機構已開始研究制定停止生產銷售傳統燃油汽車的時間表。惠譽認為,這是中國政府針對其他國家激進的時間表作出的 回應。 2016年,荷蘭和德國分別宣布計劃到2025年和2030年禁止銷售燃油汽車。2017年中期,印度宣布到2030年將全面實現在售車輛電動化,法國和英國設定的截止時 間則為2040年。這些時間表的制定是為了敦促全球汽車製造商加快發展電動車;但我們認為,由於上述大部分國家的電動汽車滲透率仍較低,實現燃油車禁售的實際時間可能會延 後。 2014年以來,中國的新能源汽車銷量強勁,以至於中國已成為世界上最大的電動汽車市場。中國新能源汽車的銷售受到扶持性政府政策的推動,包括慷慨的補貼、不受大城市的限 牌政策限制、以及公共部門的廣泛應用。 然而,一旦政府補貼在2020年底前逐步退出,新能源汽車相對於燃油汽車的吸引力降低,市場增長或將放緩。此外,鑒於中國汽車市場規模龐大、地域分布廣泛,在可預見的未來 ,汽車製造商可能無法既實現汽車全面電動化又滿足中國消費者多樣化的需求。目前,中國新能源汽車市場的地域發展極不平衡,銷量大部分集中在一二線城市,並且以低端車型為主 。 雖然中國政府制定的時間表仍將具有挑戰性,但是我們認為在未來十年內中國新能源市場將持續增長。在更嚴苛的燃油經濟性監管規定、以及2018-2019年即將實行的新能源 汽車積分制之下,汽車製造商有強大的動力在中國增加其新能源車型選擇。這可能促使中國自主品牌和中外合資車企製造商同時大幅增加低端純電動汽車和插電混動汽車的供給。實際 上,數家國際汽車製造商已選擇捷徑,通過新成立專注于生產低端電動車的合資企業來快速提高他們在中國的電動汽車產量,例如大眾-江淮、福特-眾泰,以及雷諾-日產聯盟與東 風汽車集團的合作。 更多有關惠譽對中國新能源汽車市場的內容,請參見2017年7月16日發布的《中國新能源汽車藍皮書:政府政策推動市場發展》。 聯繫人: Jing Yang(楊菁) 聯席董事 +86 21 5097 3017 惠譽(北京)信用評級有限公司上海分公司 中國上海市浦東新區陸家嘴環路479號 上海中心大廈34層3401室 Yee Man Chin(陳以文) 董事 +852 2263 9696 Media Relations: Wai-Lun Wan, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9935, Email: 詳情參見<a href=""> 注意:本新聞稿為中文譯本。如有疑問,請以英文版本為準。 ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. 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