July 21, 2017 / 9:10 AM / a month ago

惠譽確認中國的評級為‘A+’,展望穩定

(The following statement was released by the rating agency) HONG KONG, July 21 (Fitch) 本文章英文原文最初於2017年7月13日發布于:<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/1026478">Fitch Affirms China at 'A+'; Outlook Stable 惠譽評級已確認中國的長期外幣及本幣發行人違約評級為‘A+’,評級展望為穩定。惠譽同時確認中國的短期外幣及本幣發行人違約評級為‘F1+’。中國的高級無抵押債券的評 級也確認為‘A+’和‘F1+’。國家評級上限確認為‘A+’。 關鍵評級驅動因素 評級和評級展望的確認反映出以下關鍵評級驅動因素: 中國穩健的外部融資和強勁的宏觀經濟記錄繼續支持著目前為‘A+’的主權評級水平。中國的近期增長前景良好,經濟政策有效應對了過去一年的國內外壓力。然而,在中國繼續堅 持雄心勃勃的GDP增長目標的情況下,如果經濟的整體槓桿率水平繼續上升,將導致經濟和金融危機發生的可能性上升,並且惠譽認為將會限制中期增長前景。 中國非金融部門的債務水平較高並不斷上升,加之金融系統中由惠譽授予評級的銀行的獨立信用質量較低(由其‘bb’的平均生存力評級可見),仍然是主權評級面臨的最主要的風 險因素。惠譽預計2017年的官方融資總量(不包括股權融資)將從2008年GDP的114% 及2016年的201% 升高至208%。惠譽的金融機構評級團隊預計,將官方統計數據中未直接納入的信貸活動包含在內的更廣泛的信貸統計將在2017年底時升至約270%。家庭債務方面,雖然近 幾年內快速上升,但仍然保持適中水平。然而根據國際清算銀行的數據,中國企業部門已成為全球主要經濟體中債務水平最高的。 按絕對價值計算及與獲得類似評級的國家相比,中國的外部財務狀況穩健,並且預計將在評級期限內維持。由於市場情緒好轉、匯率預期穩定、多項旨在有效落實現有資金管控和監管 直接對外投資的政策出台,自2017年初開始,資本外流大幅降低。中國的經常帳戶也保持盈餘狀態。因此,外匯儲備已趨穩,今年迄今為止已增長460億美元,截至2017年 6月末達3.06萬億美元。資本外流壓力仍有可能再現,特別是在美元走強的背景下。此外,資本流動管理措施的有效性可能逐漸降低,因為市場參與者會找到規避方法。因此,惠 譽預計,到2017年末,中國的主權凈外幣資產將從2016年的29.8%下降至GDP的28.9%,但仍遠高於‘A’類5.1%的中值水平。 按照人民幣在國際支付中的占比及離岸存款規模計算,人民幣國際化進程已經放緩,但2016年底人民幣被納入國際貨幣基金組織指定儲備貨幣提供了評級緩衝,全球僅少數主權具 有此類評級緩衝。國際貨幣基金組織最新的官方外匯儲備貨幣構成數據顯示2017年3月,人民幣在全球儲備中所占的比重降至0.9%,而2015年占比為略高於1%。這證實 了其他市場調查的結果,即人民幣國際化進程已經放緩。現有的旨在增加外資在中國債券市場中參與度的舉措,包括近期推出的債券通,雖可能逐漸提升外資的參與度,但可能在短期 內受到中國資本賬戶開放不對稱的限制,即對資本流入的限制放鬆,而對資本外流的限制基本保持未變。 由於此前刺激措施見效、消費需求強勁、以及更加有利的外部環境推動了凈出口對總體增長的貢獻,中國的增長勢頭保持強勁。2017年第一季度,實際GDP增長率為6.9%, 較2016年的6.7%升高,並且將會達到政府2017年“6.5%左右”的增長目標。強勁的增長勢頭鞏固了政府對解決金融風險的信心,包括中國銀行業監督管理委員會發布 新指引以提升銀行監督和減少監管套利、黨內高層領導人關於加強風險防範的聲明、以及中國人民銀行提高市場利率以打擊影子銀行領域的投機活動。對金融風險的關注加大使政策方 向發生決定性變化的可能性上升,但尚未體現在官方GDP增長或貨幣目標中。 貨幣狀況相對收緊或將導致GDP增長放緩,根據惠譽的基準預期,GDP增長將從2017年的6.5%於2018年放緩至5.9%。惠譽的預測是宏觀審慎監管和信貸狀況收緊 將導致房地產領域和投資支出增長放緩。官方對融資總量的統計數字(不包括股權融資)繼續以約12.5%的穩定增長率繼續升高(高於名義GDP增長),但更廣泛的融資活動( 包括市政債券和非銀行金融機構貸款在內)已開始放緩。我們的預測仍存在上行風險,包括國際貿易持續改善、房地產行業保持強勁、或未納入惠譽基準預測的更多政府刺激措施。即 使將我們對減速的預期考慮在內,中國的五年平均年增長率6.7%將繼續遠高於‘A’類受評國家3.0%的中位數。 公共財政仍然是中國主權評級的中性因素。惠譽預測政府總負債(GGGD)將在2017年底時上升至GDP的48.3%,較一年前小幅升高,但與‘A’類評級49.5%的中 位數大致相符。惠譽預測的政府總負債比政府官方估計高11.5%,這是因為惠譽將上次政府審計中的或有負債包含在內。政府持續努力將地方政府融資平台從公共部門資產負債表 中分離,因此發布了多項新指引,限制地方政府為地方政府融資平台提供正式支持,並重申了政府認為債權人應獨立對待地方政府融資平台。儘管如此,持續普遍的隱性支持(例如地 方政府債券和地方政府融資平台債券的收益價差擴大幅度極微)突顯出地方水平政策貫徹的挑戰,並會使發生財政衝擊的可能性上升。 惠譽的基準假設情景仍然是與增長前景降低相符的中國中期增長預期放緩。此外,整個系統槓桿率上升所致的金融脆弱程度累積加劇了增長出現更大幅度和破壞性放緩的風險。然而, 惠譽認為,政府對金融系統債權人和借款人仍然具有普遍的所有權和影響力,擴大了可用於緩解此種風險的政策工具的範圍和有效性。 雖然自1978年開始市場化改革以來中國取得了近40年的高速發展,但與獲得類似評級的國家相比,中國的收入和發展水平仍然較低。按照市場價格,平均收入約為8387美元 ,或按照購買力平價為13130美元,遠低於‘A’類受評國家分別為19,259美元和27,714美元的中位數。根據標準國際調查(包括世界銀行治理指數),中國治理標 準亦低於‘A’類水平。這些基本的信用弱點影響了評級。 主權評級模型(SRM)及定性疊加(QO) 惠譽特有的SRM模型給予中國的評分等同于‘A’級長期外幣發行人違約評級。 惠譽的主權評級委員會應用QO調整了SRM模型的結果,得到了最終的長期外幣發行人違約評級結果,與同級受評國家相比,結果如下: - 外部財政:+1子級,以反映SRM模型中未考量的中國外部財務狀況。外部財務從+2子級調整為+1子級,反映出在2016年底人民幣被國際貨幣基金組織納入儲備貨幣後,人 民幣作為儲備貨幣在SRM模型中的靈活性得分,並且此後無需在QO中對此因素做出調整。 - 結構性特點:-1 子級,以反映銀行系統中的缺陷,因此平均生存力評級低於主權評級兩個子級。 惠譽的SRM模型是惠譽特有的多元回歸評級模型,其中採用了18個變量的三年平均值(包括一年的預測),以得到等同于長期外幣發行人違約評級的得分。惠譽的QO是前瞻性定 性框架,用於調整SRM模型的結果,以得到能夠反映惠譽評級方法中的不能完全量化及/或SRM模型不能全面反映的評級因素的最終評級。 評級敏感性 負面:可能單獨或共同導致惠譽採取負面評級行動的未來發展因素包括: - 持續的政策制定導致經濟的不平衡和脆弱程度累積。 - 出現不利的宏觀經濟或金融衝擊,削弱中期增長前景或對公共財務造成負面影響。 - 持續發生資本外流並削弱中國的對外資產負債表優勢,或損害金融穩定。 正面:可能單獨或共同導致惠譽採取正面評級行動的未來發展因素包括: - 有更大信心解決宏觀經濟中的債務問題且不對經濟增長或金融穩定造成實質性負面影響。 - 更多跡象表明中國經濟調整過程平穩。 - 人民幣作為儲備貨幣在全球範圍內廣泛使用。 關鍵評級假設 - 上述評級假設世界繼續總體保持開放的全球貿易和金融秩序。 - 惠譽假設中國總體可以維持基本的社會、政治穩定,區域性地緣政治風險不會陡然加劇。 聯繫人: 首席分析師 Andrew Fennell 董事 +852 2263 9925 惠譽國際評級有限公司 香港中環德輔道中68號 萬宜大廈19樓 第二分析師 Stephen Schwartz 高級董事 +852 2263 9938 評級委員會主席 Tony Stringer 董事總經理 +44 20 3530 1219 Media Relations: Wai-Lun Wan, Hong Kong, Tel: +852 2263 9935, Email: wailun.wan@fitchratings.com. 詳情參見<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com">www.fitchratings.com 注意:本新聞稿為中文譯本。如有疑問,請以英文版本為準。 ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. 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