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惠誉授予亚洲基础设施投资银行‘AAA’的评级,展望稳定
July 14, 2017 / 11:24 AM / 5 months ago

惠誉授予亚洲基础设施投资银行‘AAA’的评级,展望稳定

(The following statement was released by the rating agency) LONDON, July 14 (Fitch) 本文章英文原文最初于2017年7月13日发布于:<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/site/pr/1026413">Fitch Assigns Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank 'AAA'; Outlook Stable 惠誉评级已授予亚洲基础设施投资银行(亚投行)‘AAA’级的长期发行人违约评级和‘FA+’的短期发行人违约评级,评级展望稳定。 关键评级驱动因素 本次授予亚投行的评级是基于其现有的和预期的自身优势。亚投行于2015年成立,具有雄厚的资本基础,惠誉认为这会将支撑预期的贷款快速增长。其完善的政策体系和高质量的 管理也将降低风险敞口。亚投行具有极高的流动性,并将得益于其进入资本市场的便利。 亚投行的‘aaa’内在评级反映出惠誉根据其业务规划对其资本金水平、风险和流动性指标所做出的长期预测。惠誉将亚投行的资本金水平评估为极好,其现有的80个成员国已认 缴1000亿美元资本,其中实缴资本将为200亿美元。随着亚投行扩大运营规模(贷款资产组合预计于2027年达到500亿美元),权益资产比率将逐渐下降,但将持续高于 25%的阈值,与我们对其资本金水平极好的评估一致。 亚投行的风险水平预计将保持较低。根据亚投行的战略和政策,惠誉预计在10年预测期内,其贷款组合的平均评级水平将约为‘BB’级。约60%的贷款将发放于由主权担保的借 款人,并将受益于其优先债权人地位(此为多边开发银行的共同特征)。亚投行的集中度风险被评估为中等。鉴于银行设定的内部限额,其最大的5个风险敞口占银行业务总体风险敞 口的比率将逐渐降低,到2027年将低于50%。亚投行将进行一定的股权投资,但长久来看,此类投资将在其业务组合中占比5%以下。 根据与管理层的讨论,惠誉预计亚投行将采取较保守的政策,并将与评级相近的同类机构一般,维持较低的市场风险敞口。但是,其风险管理政策被评估为中等,因为多个限制政策尚 未得到明确制定,用于计算经济资本的模型亦尚未最终确定。流动资产的信用质量下限为‘A’,对比 受评AAA同机构并不保守。然而,鉴于管理层团队的整体质量,以及其承诺采取保守的策略,惠誉预计亚投行的流动性政策将得到审慎的管理。 亚投行的流动性水平被评为优秀,反映出其预留的大量流动性缓冲资本,在预测期内将保持在短期债务的150%以上。根据亚投行的内部政策,流动性资产必须至少覆盖年现金要求 的40%,这与评级相近的同类机构吻合。尽管国债投资的最低评级水平为‘A’,惠誉预计至少50%的资产将用于投资受评‘AA-’以上级别的资产。 亚投行的业务状况评估为具有中等风险,意味着在其自身评级的基础上上调了一个子级。亚投行业务所在国家的信用质量相对较低,营运环境属于高风险环境。尽管如此,该行的管理 标准高、战略清晰、对私营部门的风险敞口控制良好,确保了其低风险的业务状况,于一定程度上抵消了营运环境风险。 亚投行的评级中不包含因受到支持而给予的信用提升。其主要股东(中国、印度、俄罗斯和德国,共持股54%)的平均评级为‘A-’;一旦其达到了目标规模,净债务将无法由受 评‘A+’及以上的通知即缴资本覆盖。尽管如此,惠誉认为亚投行成员国向其提供大力支持的意愿较强。 评级敏感性 亚投行的发行人违约评级展望为稳定。可能单独或共同导致惠誉采取负面评级行动的未来发展因素包括: - 贷款增速高于预期,导致权益资产比率降至25%以下,可能对惠誉对亚投行资本金比率为‘优秀’的评估产生不利影响。 - 预期资产质量恶化,导致平均评级为‘B+’或以下,或不良贷款比率显着上升。 - 风险管理政策的实施比预期更久,或亚投行高级管理层阐述的保守的流动性策略及其他政策发生了重大变化。 关键评级假设 惠誉在预测中假定资本将按照计划实缴,并且到2027年,贷款组合规模将达到500亿美元,平均评级为BB级。此外,任何减值贷款将会100%拨备,流动性比率将覆盖短期 债务的150%以上并由投资级资产组成,其中至少50%用于投资AAA或AA级资产或银行存放。 联系人: 首席分析师 Eric Paget-Blanc 高级董事 +33 1 44 29 91 33 Fitch France S.A. 60 Rue de Monceau 75008 Paris 第二分析师 Tony Stringer 董事总经理 +44 20 3530 1219 评级委员会主席 James McCormack 董事总经理 +44 20 3530 1286 Media Relations: Peter Fitzpatrick, London, Tel: +44 20 3530 1103, Email: peter.fitzpatrick@fitchratings.com. 详情参见<a href="https://www.fitchratings.com">www.fitchratings.com 注意:本新闻稿为中文译本。如有疑问,请以英文版本为准。 ALL FITCH CREDIT RATINGS ARE SUBJECT TO CERTAIN LIMITATIONS AND DISCLAIMERS. 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