January 19, 2011 / 5:03 PM / 9 years ago

UPDATE 1-BRIC key to growth, coal to rival oil by 2030- BP

* Asia key to growth in next 20 years

* Natural gas and coal to outshine oil

* Share of renewables to soar

(Updates throughout)

LONDON, Jan 19 (Reuters) - China, India, Russia and Brazil will dominate energy demand growth in the next 20 years as non-fossil fuel consumption grows rapidly and energy output from coal almost matches that of oil, BP (BP.L) said on Wednesday.

“Non-OECD Asia will account for nearly two-thirds of non-OECD consumption growth over the next 20 years and more than three-quarters of the net global increase, rising by nearly 13 million barrels a day,” Christopher Ruhl, chief economist of the oil major, said in a statement.

BP, which has been producing benchmark annual statistical reports for the past 60 years, on Wednesday launched its first long-term energy outlook to 2030, with most findings coinciding with the benchmark report by the International Energy Agency.

Under BP’s base case, primary energy use will grow by nearly 40 percent over the next 20 years, with 93 percent of the growth coming from countries that are not part of the OECD (Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development).

OECD oil demand peaked in 2005 and is projected to return to 1990 levels in 20 years, while China will displace the United States to become the largest oil consumer.

Consumption in China is forecast to grow by 8 million barrels per day to 17.5 million by 2030, and the country is likely to implement policies to slow growth, BP said.


The oil major sees the fuel mix diversifying away from oil and coal and into renewables. BP sees fossil fuels accounting for 64 percent of the growth in energy in 2030 compared with 83 percent over the past 20 years; while renewables including biofuels will account for 18 percent of the growth.

Oil excluding biofuels will grow relatively slowly at 0.6 percent per year, while natural gas will be the fastest growing fossil fuel at 2.1 percent per year, according to the figures provided.

“In percentage terms, oil demand is reduced the most in the power sector — minus 30 percent - because this is the easiest oil to displace with gas or renewables and is the sector most likely to employ carbon pricing,” BP said.

Coal will increase by 1.2 percent a year and is likely by 2030 to provide virtually as much energy as oil excluding biofuels.

Transport demand growth will continue to be dominated by oil, but higher oil prices, improving fuel economy, vehicle saturation in mature economies and expected increases in taxes and subsidy reductions in developing economies should curb demand.


The importance of reserves-rich OPEC will rise as its share of global oil production will increase to 46 percent, a position not seen since 1977.

“The largest increments of new supply will come from OPEC - conventional crude in Saudi Arabia and Iraq, as well as OPEC natural gas liquids (NGLs), which are not subject to OPEC quotas,” BP said.

Iraqi crude output is projected to grow to more than 5.5 million barrels per day (bpd) from 2.5 million bpd currently, while Saudi output is likely to expand by nearly 3 million bpd. (Reporting by Dmitry Zhdannikov and Zaida Espana, editing by Jane Baird)

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