LONDON, Feb 26 (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank on Tuesday cut its expectations that the UK will exit the European Union without a deal after Prime Minister Theresa May said British lawmakers would be given a vote next month on a no-deal Brexit or a delay.
Oliver Harvey, head of Brexit research at the German bank, trimmed his probability of a no-deal Brexit to 10 percent from 15 percent.
“Recent developments have increased the range of possible outcomes for the Brexit endgame,” wrote Harvey.
He saw the chances of a second referendum at 10 percent, up from 5 percent previously, while he raised the probability of a new election to 20 percent from 15 percent.
Ratification of the existing Brexit deal - with “modest” changes to the controversial Irish backstop proposal - was less likely, with a 35 percent chance, down from 50 percent.
A new scenario the bank put forward was ratification, between March and June, of either a similar deal or a deal with a softer stance in the Political Declaration on the Future Relationship.
It gave this scenario a 25 percent probability. (Reporting by Helen Reid Editing by Gareth Jones)