February 26, 2019 / 5:08 PM / 8 months ago

Deutsche Bank trims expectation of a no-deal Brexit

LONDON, Feb 26 (Reuters) - Deutsche Bank on Tuesday cut its expectations that the UK will exit the European Union without a deal after Prime Minister Theresa May said British lawmakers would be given a vote next month on a no-deal Brexit or a delay.

Oliver Harvey, head of Brexit research at the German bank, trimmed his probability of a no-deal Brexit to 10 percent from 15 percent.

“Recent developments have increased the range of possible outcomes for the Brexit endgame,” wrote Harvey.

He saw the chances of a second referendum at 10 percent, up from 5 percent previously, while he raised the probability of a new election to 20 percent from 15 percent.

Ratification of the existing Brexit deal - with “modest” changes to the controversial Irish backstop proposal - was less likely, with a 35 percent chance, down from 50 percent.

A new scenario the bank put forward was ratification, between March and June, of either a similar deal or a deal with a softer stance in the Political Declaration on the Future Relationship.

It gave this scenario a 25 percent probability. (Reporting by Helen Reid Editing by Gareth Jones)

0 : 0
  • narrow-browser-and-phone
  • medium-browser-and-portrait-tablet
  • landscape-tablet
  • medium-wide-browser
  • wide-browser-and-larger
  • medium-browser-and-landscape-tablet
  • medium-wide-browser-and-larger
  • above-phone
  • portrait-tablet-and-above
  • above-portrait-tablet
  • landscape-tablet-and-above
  • landscape-tablet-and-medium-wide-browser
  • portrait-tablet-and-below
  • landscape-tablet-and-below