September 20, 2019 / 8:30 PM / 2 months ago

CANADA FX DEBT-Canadian dollar dips after lackluster retail sales data

 (Adds strategist quotes and details throughout; updates prices)
    * Canadian dollar falls 0.1% against the greenback
    * Canadian retail sales rise 0.4% in July
    * Loonie gains 0.1% for the week
    * Canada's 10-year yield hits an eight-day low at 1.387%

    By Fergal Smith
    TORONTO, Sept 20 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar edged lower
against its U.S. counterpart on Friday as domestic data showing
the first retail sales gain in three months failed to impress
investors.
    Canadian retail sales rose 0.4% in July from June on
stronger sales of new cars at motor vehicle and parts dealers,
Statistics Canada said. The increase was less than the 0.6% gain
that analysts expected, while sales volumes saw no growth.
            
    Canadians have high debt loads and depleted savings, which
could crimp their spending for as long as decades, economists
say.             
    "I didn't think the reading was that compelling for Canada,"
said Amo Sahota, director at Klarity FX in San Francisco. "It
maybe just nudged a little more weakness in the Bank of Canada
outlook but not enough to move interest rate probabilities."
    Money markets see about a 30% chance that the Bank of Canada
would cut interest rates by the end of the year. The central
bank has stayed on hold so far in 2019 even as some of its
global peers, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, have eased.
    At 3:59 p.m. (1959 GMT), the Canadian dollar          was
trading 0.1% lower at 1.3273 to the greenback, or 75.34 U.S.
cents. The currency, which touched on Wednesday a two-week low
intraday at 1.3310, traded in a range of 1.3255 to 1.3300.
    For the week, the loonie was up 0.1%.
    The price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, eased on
renewed concern over the U.S.-China trade war, but still posted
weekly gains after an attack on Saudi Arabia's energy industry
last weekend. U.S. crude oil futures        settled 0.1% lower
at $58.09 a barrel.                     
    Speculators have raised their bullish bets on the Canadian
dollar to the highest in six weeks, data from the U.S. Commodity
Futures Trading Commission and Reuters calculations showed. As
of Sept. 17, net long positions had increased to 19,823
contracts from 11,523 in the prior week.
    Canadian government bond prices were higher across a flatter
yield curve in sympathy with U.S. Treasuries. The two-year
           rose 5 Canadian cents to yield 1.574% and the 10-year
            was up 47 Canadian cents to yield 1.387%.
    That was the lowest yield for the 10-year bond since Sept.
12.

 (Reporting by Fergal Smith
Editing by Nick Zieminski, David Evans and Will Dunham)
  
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