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CANADA FX DEBT-C$ weaker as oil falls, investors weigh NAFTA talks
November 20, 2017 / 9:55 PM / a month ago

CANADA FX DEBT-C$ weaker as oil falls, investors weigh NAFTA talks

 (Adds strategist comment, updates pricing)
    * Canadian dollar at C$1.2808, or 78.08 U.S. cents
    * Oil falls 0.8 percent
    * Bond prices lower across the yield curve

    By Alastair Sharp
    TORONTO, Nov 20 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar weakened
against its U.S. counterpart on Monday as oil prices fell and
investors focused on negotiations to update the North American
Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
    Oil, one of Canada's major exports, eased as traders were
wary of betting too heavily on which way prices might move ahead
of next week's meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum
Exporting Countries.             
    "The market may be shifting its collective attention more
toward developments in crude prices," said Mazen Issa, senior
foreign exchange strategist at TD Securities. 
    Oil prices fell 0.8 percent.      
    At 4 p.m. EST (2100 GMT), the Canadian dollar          was
down 0.3 percent at C$1.2808 to the greenback, or 78.08 U.S.
cents. The currency traded in a narrow range of C$1.2756 to
C$1.2816.
    "The other factor that will be pretty important will be
retail sales later this week," Issa said. 
    The Bank of Canada has said it will closely watch economic
indicators when deciding next steps in monetary policy after
raising interest rates twice so far this year.
    On Friday, the loonie touched a two-week low at C$1.2824
after tame inflation data tempered prospects the central bank
would raise rates in the first quarter of 2018.             
    People familiar with talks to update the 23-year-old NAFTA
trade deal said Canada and Mexico planned on Monday to question
U.S. demands around automotive content, underlining scant
progress in the fifth of seven planned rounds of talks.
            
    "I don't think the currency is adequately reflecting that
(NAFTA) risk," TD's Issa said.
    Speculators have cut bullish bets on the Canadian dollar,
data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission and
Reuters calculations showed on Friday.              
    As of Tuesday, net long positions had slipped to 47,335
contracts from 50,889 a week earlier. In October, bullish bets
had reached 76,392 contracts, their highest in five years.
    Canadian government bond prices were lower across the yield
curve, with the two-year            down 3.5 Canadian cents to
yield 1.475 percent and the 10-year             falling 15
Canadian cents to yield 1.956 percent.
    Canadian wholesale trade for September is due on Tuesday,
and retail sales data for that month is set for release on
Thursday.

 (Additional reporting by Fergal Smith
Editing by Sandra Maler)
  

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