September 12, 2019 / 6:00 AM / 5 days ago

TABLE-China revises 2019/20 soybean import forecast lower

    BEIJING, Sept 12 (Reuters) - China on Thursday said it was
expecting lower soybean imports for 2019/20 from an estimate
released last month, due to Sino-U.S. trade war and higher
domestic output. 
    Soybean imports for the year are now seen at 84 million
tonnes, down 900,000 tonnes from last month's forecast, the
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs said in its monthly
crop report.
    Corn consumption for feed in 2018/19 was seen at 174 million
tonnes, down 2 million tonnes from the previous month's
estimates, due to a larger-than-expected fall in pig and sow
herds, according to the monthly Chinese Agricultural Supply and
Demand Estimates (CASDE).
    The ministry reported last month that the world's largest
pig herd shrank by 32.2% in July from the same month a year ago,
while the number of sows declined by 31.9%, as African swine
fever continued to spread through the country.
    Key numbers from the CASDE are below
            2017/  2018/2019   2019/2020  2019/2020   Percentage
            2018   (September   (August   (September   change 
                   estimate)   forecast)  forecast)   
  Corn -                                                   
 crop year                                            
 Oct-Sept                                             
  Planted   42.40    42.13       41.48      41.48       0.00%
  acreage                                             
   (mln                                               
 hectares)                                            
  Output    259.0    257.33     253.44      255.51      0.82%
   (mln       7                                       
  tonnes)                                             
  Imports   3.47      4.25       3.00        3.00       0.00%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
 Consumpti  270.2    281.28     280.80      280.80      0.00%
  on (mln     5                                       
  tonnes)                                             
  Exports   0.02      0.02       0.05        0.05       0.00%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
  Balance   -7.73    -19.72     -24.41      -22.34      8.48%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
 Soybean -                                                 
 crop year                                            
 Oct-Sept                                             
  Planted   8.25      8.40       9.07        9.07       0.00%
  acreage                                             
   (mln                                               
 hectares)                                            
  Output    15.28    16.00       17.27      17.23       -0.23%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
  Imports   94.13    83.50       84.90      84.00       -1.06%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
 Consumpti  107.0    102.91     103.65      102.85      -0.77%
  on (mln     5                                       
  tonnes)                                             
  Exports   0.14      0.23       0.15        0.15       0.00%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
  Balance   2.22     -3.64       -1.63      -1.77       -8.59%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
 Cotton -                                                  
 crop year                                            
 Sept-Aug                                             
 Beginning  8.75      7.43       7.23        7.23       0.00%
  stocks                                              
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
  Planted   3.35      3.37       3.30        3.30       0.00%
  acreage                                             
   (mln                                               
 hectares)                                            
  Output    5.89      6.04       5.80        5.80       0.00%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
  Imports   1.32      2.05       2.10        2.10       0.00%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
 Consumpti  8.49      8.25       8.25        8.25       0.00%
  on (mln                                             
  tonnes)                                             
  Exports   0.04      0.04       0.04        0.04       0.00%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
  Ending    7.43      7.23       6.84        6.84       0.00%
  Stocks                                              
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
  Sugar -                                                  
 crop year                                            
 Oct-Sept                                             
  Planted   1.38      1.48       1.48        1.48       0.00%
  acreage                                             
   (mln                                               
 hectares)                                            
   Cane     1.20      1.24       1.24        1.24       0.00%
   Beet     0.18      0.23       0.24        0.24       0.00%
  Output    10.31    10.76       10.88      10.88       0.00%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
   Cane     9.16      9.44       9.49        9.49       0.00%
   sugar                                              
   Beet     1.15      1.32       1.39        1.39       0.00%
   sugar                                              
  Imports   2.43      2.90       3.04        3.04       0.00%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
 Consumpti  15.10    15.20       15.20      15.20       0.00%
  on (mln                                             
  tonnes)                                             
  Exports   0.18      0.18       0.18        0.18       0.00%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
  Balance   -2.54    -1.72       -1.46      -1.46       0.00%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
  Edible                                                   
  oils -                                              
 crop year                                            
 Oct-Sept                                             
  Output    27.25    25.50       25.95      25.80       -0.58%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
  Soybean   15.87    14.46       14.76      14.61       -1.02%
    oil                                               
 Rapeseed   5.89      5.66       5.63        5.63       0.00%
    oil                                               
  Peanut    3.12      3.07       3.12        3.12       0.00%
    oil                                               
  Imports   6.11      7.40       6.91        6.91       0.00%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
 Palm oil   3.58      4.30       4.05        4.05       0.00%
 Rapeseed   1.07      1.35       1.10        1.10       0.00%
    oil                                               
  Soybean   0.48      0.65       0.60        0.60       0.00%
    oil                                               
 Consumpti  33.36    33.30       33.36      33.36       0.00%
  on (mln                                             
  tonnes)                                             
  Exports   0.29      0.26       0.26        0.26       0.00%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
  Balance   -0.28    -0.65       -0.75      -0.91      -21.33%
   (mln                                               
  tonnes)                                             
 
    

 (Reporting by Hallie Gu and Dominique Patton; Editing by Rashmi
Aich)
  
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